自 Dittmer 開啟戰略三角的國際政治理論後,三邊戰略探討便成為頗具詮釋力的理論模型。從冷戰時期的「美、蘇、中」戰略三角到近期的其它戰略三角,如「美、中、歐盟」、「美、中、印度」等等,族衍甚繁。 然而在東亞區域間的「美、中、台」戰略三角,隨著「中國崛起」的世界性影響與美國的東亞區域霸權穩定與利益,更使「美、中、台」戰略三角凸顯其重要性與區域霸權穩定或轉移的關鍵。以「美、蘇、中」戰略三角為立論基礎的 Dittmer 戰略三角論,是基於..
Since Lowell Dittmer proposed the theory of strategic triangle, the theory has become a powerful explanatory model that developed various triangles from the US-Soviet Union-China strategic triangle in the Cold War to the other more recent triangles like the US-China-EU and the US-China- India. Among various triangles, the US-China-Taiwan triangle has evolved into a relatively more critical one in terms of its impact on the regional hegemonic stability or shift in East Asia due to the rise of China that is shaking the US hegem..
從印度和巴基斯坦在 1998 年決定進行「全面對話」(Composite Dialogue),到 2004 年 2 月印巴「全面對話」正式開展,期間受到兩國情勢及事件的阻撓,並在 2006 年 7 月中斷數月。印度和巴基斯坦也花很多時間和精力在討論對話條件以及所包括的議題。本文的焦點為 2003 年及 2006 年 「全面對話」兩次復談協商的過程。本文將「全面對話」復談協商過程視為協調賽局,並分析、檢驗內部因素與外部壓力如何影響印巴對於復談協商的意願、相關合..
India and Pakistan agreed to undertake “Composite Dialogue” in 1998. However, the dialogue did not take place substantially until February 2004. In the interim, the two countries were deterred from launching the dialogue officially by various kinds of domestic situations and events. In July of 2006, the dialogue was disrupted again for several months due to terrorism. In the meantime, India and Pakistan spent a lot of time and efforts in negotiating the conditions for the resumption of the dialogue and issues to b..
2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..
在美國歷史上所簽訂的 14 項 FTA 中,NAFTA 與 CAFTA-DR 最能展現總統與國會在 FTA 政策制訂上所扮演角色與影響決策的程度,故本文以此兩項 FTA 作為研究美國 FTA 決策主體的案例。研究發現,在對外政策的決策主體的三種不同的模式:總統主導模式、國會主導模式與互動模式中,總統模式最能解釋美國 FTA 政策。總統具有龐大的國內外行政資源與政黨力量,可以干預國會的決策並改變個別議員的投票傾向,在不影響 FTA 基本內涵與目的下促使國會通過..
Among all 14 FTA’s signed by the U.S. in history, NAFTA and CAFTA-DR - selected by this paper as cases to identify the entity that owns the power of dominating the U.S. FTA policy - most represent the dynamics and impacts of President and Congress on the FTA policy formation. The research shows that among the three models of decision-making entities of foreign policy - President, Congress, and Interaction, the President model best explains the decision-making of FTA policies. President controls enormous external and int..
二次世界大戰後,若干國家為使其外匯存底或公共基金產生更佳的增長效益,開始由政府設置主權財富基金,近年來其規模急遽膨脹而備受矚目,2007 年較 2006 年增加 18%而為 3.3 兆美元,預估至 2015 年將超過 12 兆美元。2008 年開始因美國次級房貸所引發的全球金融危機,主權財富基金成為許多國家與企業救亡圖存的希望。從國際政治經濟學的角度來看,符合「相互依存理論」與全球化理論中「過程論」的觀點;但在迅速發展下也出現了若干問題,不但動輒影響國際金融..
After World War II, in order to obtain better growth performance from the large foreign exchange reserves or public funds, several new financial institutions in East Asia and oil-producing countries in the Middle East started to have their governments establishing the Sovereign Wealth Fund. The Sovereign Wealth Fund has attracted wide attention as their scales rapidly expanded in recent years. The fund scale increased by 18% in 2007, as compared to 2006, and reached USD 330 billion. It is estimated that the funds will exceed ..
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