2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆，是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期，這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻，雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動，發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此，若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整，則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除，使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解，關鍵不在美朝..

From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..

本文以 Victor D. Cha 之日韓準同盟理論分析，探討日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上不斷出現合作與衝突局面擺盪的特性。由過去日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上之互動，可以看出以下的特性:(1)在雙邊關係上，當日韓兩國所面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「不對稱」時，如 1972 年 美國總統尼克森訪問中國之後，日、韓之間因此而產生衝突，並促使日韓各自試圖與中國合作;(2)當日韓兩國面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「對稱」時，如 1977 年美國總統..

This research analyzed the characteristics of repeated cooperation and conflicts between Japan and Korean over disputes of the East China Sea oil and gas field based on the Japan-Korea quasi-alliance model of Victor D. Cha. In previous disputes over the East China Sea oil and gas fields, the characteristics of Japan-Korea interaction are organized as follows: (1)When the instability level of abandonment or entrapment faced by Japan and Korea in their bilateral relationship is asymmetric, conflict arises between Kor..

氣候變遷改變了全球氣候，也改變了北極。北極受全球暖化影響快速冰融，改變了區域內外的國際關係。中日韓三國為爭取未來可能浮現的北極航運利益，以及北極豐富的石油、天然氣等自然資源，紛紛設法進入此一區域。三國同時採取多邊和雙邊外交，意圖強化在北極的影響力。目前為止，三國的北極政策各自為政，甚至相互競爭，很容易產生利益衝突;北極重要的戰略地位，也易引起軍事緊張。事實上，三國在北極有共同的利益，這些共同利益有可能促成三國間的合作。  ..

Climate change has changed the Arctic. The Arctic ice is melting rapidly as the result of global warming. It changed the international relationships of the region and beyond. To compete for emerging Arctic shipping routes and abundant oil, natural gas and other natural resources, China, Japan and South Korea have managed to get involved in this area. The three countries are taking multilateral and bilateral diplomatic approaches simultaneously to strengthen their influence in the Arctic. So far, the three countries are acting..

近 400 年來的歐洲，是主權國家平等的「西發里亞體系」，以權力平衡維繫國際秩序;近 600 年以來的東亞，則是中國為天朝而四方小國臣服的「朝貢體系」，是上下層級的國際秩序。為何會有「朝貢體系」?它為何能運作?從現實主義式的觀點來看，「朝貢體系」只是一個包裝過的權力政治，骨子裡仍是物質上的利害與效益計算，中國霸權之下區域國家抵抗無望，不得不臣服。但是，從建構主義式的觀點來看，之所以會有「朝貢體系」的國際秩序，並不只是因為中國的強大，也是因為區域國家認同中國的..

For nearly four centuries, Europe had the so-called Westphalian System of sovereign states, in which balance of power was the basis of international order. In contrast, for nearly six centuries, East Asia had the so-called “tribute system,” a hierarchical order where China was the supreme leader. Why? From a realist perspective, the tribute system was just a wrapper over power politics based on material calculations of interest and benefit: East Asian countries had no choice but submission to China’s hegemon..

國家安全戰略中的經濟安全層面關注之面向為掌握經濟資源管道，維持經濟繁榮與永續發展，進而保障經濟體系長期穩定成長與安全運作。韓國自 1990 年代末期啟動 FTA 戰略，作為主要的對外通商核心政策，希望透過積極參與經濟整合，提升國際地位。 本文由韓國構築 FTA 戰略之源起為背景，以韓國政府公報、官員回憶錄、美國國會之公開檔案、智庫之研究報告、國內外學者撰寫之重要期刊論文與專書以及主要媒體報導為參考素材，配合訪談參與韓美 FTA 談判之雙..

National security strategy on the economic level of concern focuses not only on controlling economic resources to maintain prosperity and sustainable development, but also ensures long-term and stable growth and safety operation in an economic system. South Korea has pushed forward the FTA strategy as its core foreign trade policy since the 1990s in order for participating in economic integration and enhancing its international status. This paper sets Korea’s FTA Strategy as the background and uses Korean gov..