霸權應對崛起強權的具體策略，是觀察美中兩強權力競爭的重要課題。國際關係受到霸權權力衰落宿命論的影響，無視霸權是戮力科技創新的國際層級結構產物。本文試圖從領導長周期論的視角，勾勒科技創新對於霸權維繫其全球主導地位的重要性，提出霸權面對崛起強權科技創新追趕挑戰的分析架構。本文解析冷戰時期美國回應蘇聯地緣戰略與日本科技創新威脅的不同面貌，辨識美國為延緩中國科技創新追趕速度，在關鍵新興尖端科技領域，所採取的出口管制、自強自固、阻絕圍堵與吸融匯濟等四種策略，並分析美國所遭遇的挑戰與契機。本文發現，..

The specific strategies employed by a hegemon in dealing with rising powers are a crucial aspect of understanding the power competition between the United States and China. International relations paradigms have been influenced by the notion of the inevitable decline of hegemonic power, often disregarding the fact that a hegemon is a product of international-level efforts in science and technological innovation. This article aims to delineate the significance of technological innovation in maintaining global dominance for a hegemon with the..

美中貿易戰宣告了兩國在國際政治的競爭局勢正式展開，2019年後的疫情更形加劇了兩國彼此的競爭關係。然而，美中對立下新冷戰的政治兩極化一定會造成國際貿易關係的兩極化嗎？世界各國真的會各自歸隊，在美國與中國之間擇一而處，形成兩極對立的局勢嗎？還是口頭上與行為上有差異，仍然依照國家自身的利益分別和美國和中國進行實質上的往來。本文即探討這個問題，比較疫情前後，國際貿易局勢的變化到底是趨向兩極化還是非兩極化。本文認為，新冷戰的局勢下，美中對立造成的政治兩極化無法避免，但政治兩極化不等於貿易關係兩極..

The U.S.-China trade war indicates a confrontation between the U.S. and China, and the pandemic problem since 2019 deteriorates the confrontation. However, will political polarization due to the new cold war between the U.S. and China lead to economic polarization? Do countries in the whole world choose their own sides between the U.S. and China, establishing two blocs and competing? Or countries in the whole world behave inconsistently in terms of verbal promises and practical actions. National interest is still their benchmark to have sub..

本文主要關注後冷戰時期，面對中國崛起，美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析，統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應，而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外，統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中，美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應，顯示泰國面對大國政治的..

Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impa..

學界一般認為，冷戰結束後，隨著中國的快速崛起，包括越南在內的東亞小國對中國所採取的外交策略偏向「避險」或「接納」。文獻指出除了加強與中國的關係外，越南亦主動與各大國交好，並強調其要走著一個獨立、自主、多元且多方化的外交政策路線，此被視為越南對中國的「避險」策略。然而，本文認為有關越南對中國政策的分析較為單向，即大部分僅著重在越中關係本身的推拉力，而忽略了美國在其中的主動角色。 因此，無法說明越南對中政策近期的動態變化。本文的論點是，基於安全與國家利益的考量，..

The conventional wisdom assumes that East Asian countries have been adopting “hedging” or “accommodating” strategy toward China since the end of the Cold War. By putting forward an “independent, diversified and multidirectional foreign policy,” Vietnam has attempted to strengthen relations with a number of major powers, including China. As a result, Hanoi is regarded as a typical “hedger” towards Beijing. This paper, on the contrary, argues that the relating analyses on Vietnam&..

本文認為，「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權日本」(1931~1941)與「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權中國」(1993~2018)的比較，能為現今的美中關係提供許多建設性的思考。本文從既有強權的角度觀察其如何回應崛起強權;以Randall Schweller的歸納為基礎而建立一個相對完整的政策選擇全貌。作者發現:面對1931~1941年崛起的日本，美國先採「中立、綏靖」，後改採「制衡」，最終採「戰爭」。面對1993~2018年崛起的中國，美國以「交往」為基..

This paper argues that the comparative study of the two cases - the US dominant power vs. the Japan rising power (1931-1941) and the US dominant power vs. the China rising power (1993-2018) can provide ample constructive thinking on the contemporary US-China relations. This paper focuses on how a dominant power reacts to a rising power. An analytical framework of dominant powers’ policy options toward rising powers, based on Randall Schweller’s theories, is developed and applied to this study. This paper has found..