中小型國家在當前國際體系下的數目眾多,這些國家有各自國家利益與偏好,因此理解這群國家的策略選擇可以更全面地了解國際關係發展。本文研究設計有以下幾個特色:第一,本文以歐洲的中小型國家為個案研究標的,擇立陶宛、匈牙利與土耳其三國進行分析,這三國分別位於當前東/西歐對立環境的最前沿,透過觀察這些國家可理解地緣斷層帶上中小型國家面對歐、俄強權競爭時的策略選擇。第二,由於中國近年不斷向歐洲拋射影響力,歐洲國家明顯感受到中國政策影響,歐洲的中小型國家傳統上面對歐/俄兩強環境已出現變化,由於中國不斷崛..
Small and medium-sized states constitute a substantial portion of the contemporary international system. These states possess distinct national interests and preferences; hence, examining their strategic choices provides a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of international relations. This study is characterized by several key features. First, it focuses on European small and medium-sized states through the case studies of Lithuania, Hungary, and Turkey. These countries are situated on the geopolitical frontlines of the current East..
本研究目的在建立美國傳統戰略模糊與臺灣避險策略間之理論關聯性。主要假設當臺灣從美國獲得較多且明確之安全承諾時,將可能更依賴美國安全保護傘,進而降低自身制定外交政策之自主與靈活性。過去數十年,華盛頓持續且長期的安全承諾,即有可能限制臺灣的避險策略選擇。本研究的實證證據,主要探討川普與拜登政府任內,華府戰略模糊逐漸轉變為戰略清晰下,臺北在美中兩強之間的外交政策。此外,藉由將避險的理論「模型化」,並區別避險與樞紐的關係,是本文另一個研究貢獻。
The study aims to establish a theoretical connection between strategic ambiguity and hedging policy. The assumption is that as Taiwan receives more security assurance and clarity from the United States, it may rely more on the U.S. security umbrella, reducing its autonomy and flexibility in crafting its foreign policy. Over time, consistent and prolonged security commitments from the United States could limit Taiwan’s hedging options, as it increasingly aligns with the U.S. position. The empirical evidence in this article explores how..
本文研究同時具有「北約組織」和「歐盟」會員國身分的歐洲國家與中國之間的關係。同時具有這兩個會員國身分的國家,除了是歐洲「最為民主」和「最具安全保障」的國家之外,也因為須配合這兩個國際建制的官方立場,因而在理論上應該要對中國採取方向一致的經濟、外交和安全政策。然而,近年來,隨著「美國對中政策的轉變」、「歐盟在移民和經濟議題上的分裂」,以及「北約組織各國在安全議題上的分歧」,中國對歐洲國家「分而治之」的爭議也浮上檯面。在經濟和安全皆有保障的情況之下,是否有什麼系統性的因素可以解釋歐洲各國與中..
This paper examines the relationships between China and the European countries that hold dual membership in both NATO and EU. These countries, being among the most democratic and secure in Europe, are theoretically expected to adopt consistent economic, diplomatic, and security policies toward China in line with the official positions of these two international institutions. However, in recent years, shifts in U.S. policy towards China, divisions within the EU on migration and economic issues, and security disagreements within NATO have bro..
作為太平洋島國地區成員之一的索羅門群島,近年和美國、中國、澳洲等國家皆往來密切,成為各方積極拉攏的合作對象,其外交動向備受國際社會矚目。本文運用國際關係研究中的「避險戰略」分析索羅門群島外交政策,該戰略建議現代國家面臨利害交錯的複雜情境時,宜跳脫傳統的「平衡/扈從」二分思維,改以雙向投注作法同時迴避安全損害及利益損失風險。研究結果顯示索羅門群島雖是發展程度低落且國內情勢不穩的小型島國,卻能在美中競逐的混沌局面中靈活遊走,同步交好各方以擴大外部援助、增進國家安全並提升國際地位,其外交施政體..
As a member of the Pacific Islands region, the Solomon Islands has developed close ties with countries such as the United States, China, and Australia in recent years, making itself an actively courted partner of relevant countries, its diplomatic orientation therefore attracted the attention of the international community. This article used the “hedging strategy” in international relations studies to analyze the foreign policy of the Solomon Islands. The research of “hedging strategy” suggests modern countries shoul..
本文探討法國印太戰略對歐盟與臺灣影響,認為法國的印太戰略在美 國與中國競逐的壓力下,採取了積極的策略,並影響歐盟印太合作戰略的 方向。法國的印太戰略以捍衛國家安全為核心,採取積極避險策略,一方 面希望提升法國在歐盟內部的影響力,另一方面則希望促進歐盟與印太國 家的經貿合作,幫助歐洲擺脫美國在烏克蘭危機上對歐洲的控制和主導。 法國的積極作為促使歐盟印太合作戰略增強與印太地區國家發展多邊關 係,並有助於將臺灣納入歐盟印太地區整體的安全與經濟合作框架中。
This article explores the impact of France’s Indo-Pacific strategy on the European Union and Taiwan. It argues that, under the pressure of competition between the United States and China, France has adopted a proactive strategy that influences the direction of the EU’s Indo-Pacific cooperation strategy. Centered on safeguarding national security, France takes an active hedging strategy on the Indo-Pacific region. On one hand, France seeks to enhance its influence within the EU; on the other hand, it aims to promote economic and ..
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