對於強權並存且有爆發戰爭可能性的國際格局，戰爭由誰引發在學界的論點迥異。權力轉移理論認為崛起國基於不滿現狀，會對主導強權發起戰爭；另有聲音則認為衰退的國家基於預防性動機，會對崛起的對手採取行動；然而，權力轉移理論與預防性動機的論述，主要關注於戰爭的發動，此觀點反映一種以「戰爭」進行解析的框架，即探討國與國之間是否會發生戰爭。本研究則以另一個「非戰爭的攻防」的分析框架，論述主導強權與崛起國之間在兵戎之外的攻防行動。本文以美國在2022年施行的晶片與科學法案為例，論述美國對中國採行的非戰爭預..

In the international arena where powerful nations coexist, and the possibility of war exists, there are differing opinions on who triggers wars. Power transition theory suggests that a rising power will initiate war against a dominant power out of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Other argue that the declining state is motivated by preventive motivation to take action against rising adversary. However, both the power transition theory and the preventive motivation argument primarily focus on the initiation of war. This perspective refle..

當美中兩大強權在東亞仍然維持既競爭又合作的態勢時，避險(hedging)遂成為亞太國家一個務實且富有彈性的外交政策選擇。本文認為，中國的「夥伴關係」外交在學理與實務上確實與傳統軍事聯盟存有差異。中國在後冷戰時期國際社會缺少意識形態對抗的背景下推動「夥伴關係」外交，透過改善對外關係而拉攏國際支持，進而使得周邊國家享有更多採取避險戰略的空間。南韓作為美國的亞太盟國，在美中之間的避險即為一項例證。本文認為，除非國際情勢與國際結構有明顯變化，短期之內中國應該不至於放..

As the United States and China have remained the competition and cooperation in East Asia, hedging has become a pragmatic foreign policy object for the secondary states in the region. This article explores the differences between China’s “partnership” and traditional military alliances, attempting to explain the lack of a clear ideology in the post-Cold War era and its impacts on states’ hedging. Due to the strategy of “partnership” rather than the traditional military alliance, it has prov..

WTO爭端解決機制一向被譽為皇冠上之珍珠，如今上訴機構陷入停擺危機，反而成為皇冠上之荊棘。過去數年來，美國運用WTO所要求之共識，屢次反對上訴機構成員之選任案，尤其是川普政府上台後更加強杯葛之力道。根據爭端解決規則暨程序瞭解書之規定，上訴案件最少由三名成員審理並作成裁決。然而2019年12月10日之後，上訴機構已無法正常運作。長期以來美國對上訴機構提出許多批評，包括系統性、實質性與程序性問題;反之，許多WTO會員則急於補實懸缺，而疏於處理美國關切之事項。根據爭端解決規則暨程序瞭解書第3...

The dispute settlement system, often considered as the “crown jewel” of the WTO, is in a present crisis and becomes the crown of thorns. Over the past years, the United States through the use of the WTO’s consensus requirements has successfully blocked the launch of a process to select the Appellate Body members. This is carried forward by the Trump administration. With a Settlement of Disputes Understanding (DSU) requirement that appeals be heard by three AB members, with the AB membership down to zero at the present time..

學界一般認為，冷戰結束後，隨著中國的快速崛起，包括越南在內的東亞小國對中國所採取的外交策略偏向「避險」或「接納」。文獻指出除了加強與中國的關係外，越南亦主動與各大國交好，並強調其要走著一個獨立、自主、多元且多方化的外交政策路線，此被視為越南對中國的「避險」策略。然而，本文認為有關越南對中國政策的分析較為單向，即大部分僅著重在越中關係本身的推拉力，而忽略了美國在其中的主動角色。 因此，無法說明越南對中政策近期的動態變化。本文的論點是，基於安全與國家利益的考量，..

The conventional wisdom assumes that East Asian countries have been adopting “hedging” or “accommodating” strategy toward China since the end of the Cold War. By putting forward an “independent, diversified and multidirectional foreign policy,” Vietnam has attempted to strengthen relations with a number of major powers, including China. As a result, Hanoi is regarded as a typical “hedger” towards Beijing. This paper, on the contrary, argues that the relating analyses on Vietnam&..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..