本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的..
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impa..
學界一般認為,冷戰結束後,隨著中國的快速崛起,包括越南在內的東亞小國對中國所採取的外交策略偏向「避險」或「接納」。文獻指出除了加強與中國的關係外,越南亦主動與各大國交好,並強調其要走著一個獨立、自主、多元且多方化的外交政策路線,此被視為越南對中國的「避險」策略。然而,本文認為有關越南對中國政策的分析較為單向,即大部分僅著重在越中關係本身的推拉力,而忽略了美國在其中的主動角色。 因此,無法說明越南對中政策近期的動態變化。本文的論點是,基於安全與國家利益的考量,..
The conventional wisdom assumes that East Asian countries have been adopting “hedging” or “accommodating” strategy toward China since the end of the Cold War. By putting forward an “independent, diversified and multidirectional foreign policy,” Vietnam has attempted to strengthen relations with a number of major powers, including China. As a result, Hanoi is regarded as a typical “hedger” towards Beijing. This paper, on the contrary, argues that the relating analyses on Vietnam&..
本文認為,「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權日本」(1931~1941)與「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權中國」(1993~2018)的比較,能為現今的美中關係提供許多建設性的思考。本文從既有強權的角度觀察其如何回應崛起強權;以Randall Schweller的歸納為基礎而建立一個相對完整的政策選擇全貌。作者發現:面對1931~1941年崛起的日本,美國先採「中立、綏靖」,後改採「制衡」,最終採「戰爭」。面對1993~2018年崛起的中國,美國以「交往」為基..
This paper argues that the comparative study of the two cases - the US dominant power vs. the Japan rising power (1931-1941) and the US dominant power vs. the China rising power (1993-2018) can provide ample constructive thinking on the contemporary US-China relations. This paper focuses on how a dominant power reacts to a rising power. An analytical framework of dominant powers’ policy options toward rising powers, based on Randall Schweller’s theories, is developed and applied to this study. This paper has found..
過去多年間,中國在網路科技領域取得了突出的建設成果,成為當代國際網路事務要角。北京當局近期更提出「網路強國」戰略,試圖全面強化國家網路實力。中國在網路領域的進取,不僅對美國的固有優勢構成挑戰,也助長了美國政府對其戰略意圖的疑慮,從而增添雙邊關係的不穩定性。為瞭解中國網路建設藍圖與對美政策立場,本文審視了「網路強國」戰略的主要內容,及美國因素在其間的影響;同時透過國際關係研究中的「避險戰略」 探討中國對美網路互動態樣,說明中國政府如何在網路事務中,同步推動對美..
China has made huge advances in the field of cyber technology in the past few years and it is now an important player in international cyber affairs. Beijing recently introduced its ‘Cyber Power Strategy’ in a bid to comprehensively strengthen the nation’s cyber capabilities. China’s cyber ambitions not only constitute a real challenge to the U.S. but have also prompted concerns in Washington about China’s strategic purpose and have more uncertainty to their already unstable bilateral relations. ..
本文探討影響中美在中國沿海進行海域油氣勘探合作的主要變數。尼克森政府時期,中美開始海域油氣勘探上的接觸。改革開放與中美建交後,中國擴大與美國在海域油氣勘探上的合作。不過,中國和周邊國家存在領土與邊界爭議。北京威脅使用武力,對美國政府與石油公司產生影響。《聯合國海洋法公約》是另一個重要變數,特別是在蘇聯瓦解後。2008 年,中美開始進行有關投資保障協定的談判。一般而言,雙邊投資協定要求簽約國對外來投資者提供保護。2012 年,歐巴馬政府完成了美國投資保障協定範..
This article discusses major factors affecting offshore oil and natural gas exploration cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the United States along China’s coast. Contact between the U.S. and China regarding offshore oil and natural gas exploration began in the Nixon Administration. After the reform and opening-up policy and the establishment of Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations, China expanded cooperation with the U.S. in offshore oil and natural gas exploration. However, there are existing territ..
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