Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
2006年9月19日泰國爆發字1991年以來首次的軍事政變，結束了長達近一年的反塔克辛運動，總理塔克辛(Thaksin Shinawatra)被迫下台並流亡海外，臨時政府預計將以一年的時間進行政治改革，修訂新憲法與重新舉行國會大選，塔克辛時代正式宣告結束。事實上，2001年時塔克辛率領泰愛泰黨(Thai Rak Thai Party)以極大的差距擊敗民主黨(Democrat Party)，順利當選泰國總理，歷經四年的執政之後，再度於2005年獲得連任。儘管塔克辛具有龐大民意的支持，但由於..
The first coup d’etat since 1991 in Thailand on 19 September 2006 ended not only the year-long anti-Thaksin demonstrations, but also Thaksin’s political career. The provisional government, led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, organized by the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR), was determined to restore a democratic government, to revise the new constitution, and hold a general election within one year. In the 2001 general election, Thaksin Shinawatra led the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party and triumphantly defeated the Democratic Pa..
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