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為什麼不中立了? 從關鍵時刻、地緣政治與決策模式分析瑞典與芬蘭中立政策調整
Why is Neutrality no longer an Option? An Analysis of the Adjustments of the Neutral Policies in Sweden and Finland from Critical Moments, Geopolitics and Decision-making Patterns
楊三億 (San-yi Yang)
63卷1期(2024/03/01)

瑞典與芬蘭是歐洲實施中立政策歷史相當悠久的國家,長期以來這兩國選擇中立作為外交政策主軸,不過2022年2月俄烏戰爭爆發後這兩國決意擺脫中立、改以申請加入北約為其新的外交目標,此種策略轉變對兩國與歐洲安全形成很大衝擊。芬蘭已於2023年4月4日加入北約,2023年7月北約峰會召開之際,土耳其與匈牙利亦表態支持瑞典入約。本文所欲探討者乃是分析這兩國為何調整其長久以來堅守的中立政策理念,過往多數觀點認為瑞、芬兩國拋棄中立乃因俄烏戰爭威脅所致,但實際觀察兩國政策演變,俄烏戰爭僅是政策轉折最後階段..

Sweden and Finland are countries with a long history of neutral policies, and they have traditionally chosen neutrality as their main direction for foreign policy. However, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in February 2022, both countries have decided to abandon neutrality and adopt joining NATO as their new security strategy. This disruptive evolution of diplomatic strategy has had a significant impact on the security of both countries and Europe as a whole. As of the writing of this article, Finland has already joined NATO on..

國際會議決策制定的建構觀點: 以領海寬度的形成為例
A Constructive View on Decision Making of International Conferences: Taking the Width of Territorial Sea as an Example
郁瑞麟(Ruei-Lin Yu)
59卷4期(2020/12/01)

「第三屆聯合國海洋法會議」係迄今為止,聯合國所召開時間最長且規模最大的一次國際立法會議,部分學者將此會議的成功,歸因於「包裹交易」或「大國政治」的折衝。本文援引社會學領域的相關討論,使用 「意義框架」取代溫特的「共享概念」,對國際關係領域中的國際會議決策制定提出分析架構與可操作的觀察指標。此分析架構中的意義框架與行 為體行為兩者互為因果,處於一種動態的建構關係,而「共同期待」係為兩者的中介,若符合期待,兩者便趨於穩定;反之,則面臨調整。本文透過自1930年「國際法編纂會議」到1982年「..

The Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) might be the largest and longest international law codification conference thus far. Some scholars attribute the success of this conference to the “package deal” or “great power politics.” This paper adopts the view of constructivism and cites relevant discussions in the field of sociology and replaces Wendt’s “shared ideas” with “meaning framework” for proposing a new analysis framework with operational indicators fo..

美國總統公布對臺軍售的時機選擇: 行政部門通知國會審查的分析
The President’s Choice of Timing for Arms Sales to Taiwan: An Analysis of the Executive Branch’s Notification to Congress for Review
陳偉華(Wei-hua Chen)
59卷3期(2020/09/01)

自我國與美國斷交後,過去40年來,美國政府對臺軍售始終為美國作為兩岸關係第三方影響的重要課題,亦為在兩岸間「衝突預防」的政策工具。美國對於臺灣的安全承諾,長期擺盪在安全利益與民主聲譽之間,亦根源於行政部門和國會之間的立場分野。有別於過去的分析途徑,本文從外交政策分析(FPA)的理論視角切入,以總統決策機制為分析單元,討論美國總統在對臺軍售決策機制中究竟扮演的關鍵角色,以總統任期、領導人安全觀及府會結構三項解釋變數,檢視歷屆美國總統對於公布軍售和..

Since the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S arms sales to Taiwan have been a critical issue affecting the Cross-Strait relations for the past 40 years. In order to preserve stability in the Taiwan Strait, maintaining sufficient self-defense capability for Taiwan has been the major goal of the United States. However, the U.S security commitment to Taiwan has long been fluctuating between security interests and democratic reputation. It also depends on the stance of the executive bran..

道歉後的制度性安排: 澳洲條約機制引進對我國之啟發
Is Treaty-making a Way of Decolonization?: Learning from Australia’s Treaty Debates
黃之棟(Morgan Chih-Tung Huang)
59卷3期(2020/09/01)

2016年8月1日原住民族日當天,蔡英文總統代表政府正式向原住民族道歉。自此之後,臺灣的原住民族政策便邁入了新頁。在眾多後續討論中,原住民族自治議題尤其受到族人與各界的關注。對此,現階段政府的規劃,是希望參酌美加紐等國經驗,透過「實質談判程序機制」來達到自治。此方案近似於前述原住民族先進國所採取的「條約模式」,也就是透過原住民族和國家(中央、地方政府)協商談判並簽訂協定的方式,來確認進而規範兩者間的關係。面對此一嶄新的方案,各界的討論卻相對有限。無獨有偶地,..

In 2016, President Ing-wen Tsai apologized to the Taiwanese indigenous peoples on behalf of the government, which is known as the National Apology. Echoing this National Apology, the Council of Indigenous Peoples reaffirmed its proposal called the “substantive negotiation process”. Before long, this innovative treaty-making provision opened a debate on whether or not such process can really fit in with Taiwan’s current constitutional and legal system. As a way to move forward, this article attempts to scruti..

法律資料分析與文字探勘:跨境毒品流動要素與結構研究
Applying Legal Analytics and Text Mining: Factors and Structure of the Cross-border Drug Trafficking
邵軒磊(Hsuan-lei Shao)吳國清(Kou-ching Wu)
58卷2期(2019/06/01)

台灣約有六成毒品來自境外,因此「跨境」毒品流動為重要研究主題,亦關乎台灣在國際政治上之非傳統安全領域,但至今少有公開資訊。本研究使用法律資料分析法,探索七萬餘篇法院判決書作為文本資料,描繪「毒品案件要素與結構」。研究發現:(1)近年約有三分之二件毒品案件是累犯,所有案件中之四分之三可易科罰金,兩者佐證現實上監獄負擔過重問題。(2)近年關於毒品之7種犯罪方式之數量增長程度有顯著差異存在,犯案數量由大至小為「施用、持有、製造、販賣、轉讓、運輸、栽種」。(3)就近..

Illegal drug is a serious global problem today. It is necessary to understand its distribution and trafficking routes in order to tackle this problem. Moreover, it is estimated that approximately 60 percent of the illegal drugs in Taiwan came from overseas. Hence, the flaw of cross-border drug control is also an important issue in international affairs. This article uses legal analytics to study 71,629 judgements text involving drug-related crimes to grasp the picture of case factor and structure by text mining technology. It..

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