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試探美國外交政策訊號之操作:以 2012~16 年美國在南海爭議和 APEC 承諾為例
Understanding U.S. Foreign Policy Signals: Evidence from 2012 - 2016 U.S. Involvement in South China Sea Disputes and APEC Commitments
黃偉峰(David W. F. Huang)
57卷3期(2018/09/01)

美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上,美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜,混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件,美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述,單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議,以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例,試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例,美國..

How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..

影響中美在中國周邊海域油氣勘探合作的主要變數
Major Factors Affecting Cooperation Between PRC and the U.S. on Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Exploration along China's Coast
陳鴻鈞(Hung-Chun Chen)
56卷1期(2017/03/01)

本文探討影響中美在中國沿海進行海域油氣勘探合作的主要變數。尼克森政府時期,中美開始海域油氣勘探上的接觸。改革開放與中美建交後,中國擴大與美國在海域油氣勘探上的合作。不過,中國和周邊國家存在領土與邊界爭議。北京威脅使用武力,對美國政府與石油公司產生影響。《聯合國海洋法公約》是另一個重要變數,特別是在蘇聯瓦解後。2008 年,中美開始進行有關投資保障協定的談判。一般而言,雙邊投資協定要求簽約國對外來投資者提供保護。2012 年,歐巴馬政府完成了美國投資保障協定範..

This article discusses major factors affecting offshore oil and natural gas exploration cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the United States along China’s coast. Contact between the U.S. and China regarding offshore oil and natural gas exploration began in the Nixon Administration. After the reform and opening-up policy and the establishment of Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations, China expanded cooperation with the U.S. in offshore oil and natural gas exploration. However, there are existing territ..

日本四期〈防衛計畫大綱〉制定模式之轉變:政官分工架構之逐漸成形
Shifts of Japan's Defense Policymaking: The Emerging Division of Labor between Political and Bureaucratic Elites
郭育仁(Yu-Jen Kuo)
55卷2期(2016/06/01)

日本「防衛計畫大綱」的制定模式隨內外環境變化,政治菁英與官僚的政策功能不斷改變,而政官之間互動也成為影響防衛政策內容的主因。過去四期的制定模式變化從冷戰期間高度左右意識形態對立下政治菁英消極參與及官僚有限主導、冷戰後政黨脆弱共識下政治菁英有限參與及官僚有限主導、到 911 事件後內閣強力主導下官僚被動配合、與民主黨執政下的多元政治參與及官僚擔任專業幕僚,逐漸形成政官分工架構。其中,內閣與執政黨負責提供政治領導、政策方向、與政黨間共識形成;防衛官僚認知國際局勢..

The making of Japan’s National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG)has been shifting from a limited bureaucratic-centric model under domestic ideological confrontation and political elites’ limited participation during and after the Cold War to the division of labor between political and bureaucratic elites during Koizumi’s “Kantei Diplomacy” and the Democratic Party of Japan(DPJ)era. The Cabinet and ruling party provide political leadership, policy direction, and consensus formation in the ruling c..

中美外援是基於國際道義或現實利益?非洲案例的實證分析
Are the U.S. and China's Foreign Aid Based on International Morality or Real Interests? An Empirical Analysis of the Africa Case
郭建中(Jiann-Jong Guo)王國臣(Guo-Chen Wang)
55卷1期(2016/03/01)

本文利用追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型,檢證 2003~2012 年中美外援非洲的動機與成效。結果顯示,大國外援有相同之處:兩者外援目的,都不是基於國際道義考量,但大國外援也存在差異的地方:中國外援以現實利益為主,目的為確保其企業海外投資安全。美國外援則不局限在經濟利益而已,更加側重非傳統安全領域;換言之,美援強調的是綜合利益。中美兩國外援模式差異,肇因於彼此政府對自身所處國際體系地位的認知不同。  

In this paper, we used the panel data vector autoregression model (PVAR) to test motivation and effectiveness of the U.S. and China’s foreign aid (FA) in Africa. Empirical results show similarities in the great power’s foreign aid: the purpose of both great power’s FA is not based on international moral considerations. However there are also major differences between these two great power’s FA. Chinese FA is based on real interests and mainly aims to ensure safety of its outward foreign dire..

以中國對美國資本回流率檢視貨幣權力理論
Testing the Monetary Power Theory: A Case of China’s Capital Account/Current Account to the U.S.
沈麗山(Lih-Shan Shen)
55卷1期(2016/03/01)

Benjamin J. Cohen 和 Eric. Helleiner 對貨幣權力進行概念論述,但欠缺具體操作指標,學者趙文志依 Cohen 貨幣權力理論中的延遲權力與轉移權力,提出延遲權力中有中、美兩國外匯儲備量、國債發行規模的借貸能力,轉移權力以貿易占 GDP 比值的開放程度,共三項具體指標,指出美國開放度比中國低、但美元流動性與借貸能力高於中國,說明美國對中國有貨幣權力,但該文無法說明中國外匯存底和貿易開放程度都高於美國,但為何是美國擁有貨幣權力,顯然..

Although Benjamin J. Cohen and Eric Helleiner have developed narratives on Monetary Power, there is no clear operational definition of the term. Based on Cohen’s discussion of the power of delay and the power of transfer, Chou Wen-Chi came up with three criteria to measure Monetary Power: foreign reserve, outstanding national debt, and percentage of trade in GDP. Using these criteria, he pointed out that although the US is less trade- dependent, liquidity of US Dollar and borrowing ability of the US are both higher. Thu..

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