2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆，是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期，這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻，雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動，發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此，若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整，則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除，使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解，關鍵不在美朝..

From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..

本文檢視 9 個在 2000 年至 2013 年與中華民國(以下簡稱臺灣)斷交的國家，以探討友邦與我斷交背後的中華人民共和國(以下稱中國)因素。本研究發現，對臺灣友邦來說，獲取來自中國在貿易、投資與金援的經濟考量，以及透過中國的支持提升其國際地位與穩固國內政權的政治考量，是影響友邦是否願意與臺灣延續外交關係的重要因素。大部分友邦在與臺灣斷交後，均能獲取大量來自中國的經濟與政治利益，即便是擁有長期穩固邦誼的友邦亦然。從友邦的角度來看，透過遊走於兩岸的外交競爭之..

This paper investigates the underlying China factor that played out when nine countries ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (hereafter called ‘Taiwan’). Research shows acquiring economic benefits from China, in terms of trade, investment and foreign aid, securing China’s support for enhancing international status and consolidating domestic political power are important factors when an ally of Taiwan considers breaking ties. Most allies receive immediate and significant political and economi..

美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上，美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜，混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件，美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述，單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議，以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例，試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例，美國..

How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..

本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際，兩國之間充滿競爭與合作，且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作，進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作，擱置爭議，為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境，但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇，作為避險。不過，因為缺乏互信，以及決策者面對的政治風險，有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如，在 2013 ..

This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..

「印度-太平洋」一詞近幾年成為眾所矚目的焦點，甚至迅速取代各界對於「亞洲-太平洋」的關注。不只是全球主要政治領袖紛紛關注「印太區域」的發展與榮景、積極凸顯「印太戰略」的重要性，而國際間重要外交政策智庫亦密集辦理會議及論壇，詳細比較區域國家的「印太政策」，試圖歸納出印太區域政經發展的當前圖象與未來路向。此種在戰略或政策論述上正逐漸由「亞太」朝「印太」轉向的變革，蔚為趨勢。本文將探討正在發展中的印太戰略，從區域內部與外部的形構動力著手，對照主要利害關係國的多元政..

Much attention has been paid to the notion and setting of “Indo-Pacific” in recent years. It becomes a buzzword, to some extent, replacing “Asia- Pacific” as the focal point in regional stability and prosperity among stakeholders in Asia. In order to better portray contesting approaches for Indo-Pacific engagement, this study explores driving forces that shape the current power configuration in the Indo-Pacific region, unfolds the development of Indo-Pacific strategies among major powers such as Japan,..