美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上，美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜，混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件，美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述，單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議，以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例，試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例，美國..

How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..

本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際，兩國之間充滿競爭與合作，且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作，進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作，擱置爭議，為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境，但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇，作為避險。不過，因為缺乏互信，以及決策者面對的政治風險，有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如，在 2013 ..

This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..

中國大陸(Mainland China)做為社會科學學術研究對象，隨學科變遷以及兩岸情勢發展，在各時期有不同主題。承此，本文使用主題分析工具 (CATAR)，對「中國大陸研究」期刊於 1998~2015 年刊載之論文，透過論文的篇名與摘要文字，從事主題群聚(clustering)分析，藉以辨識顯著的研究主題，及其關鍵字，並以此觀察各主題發展趨勢。結果呈現出「中國大陸研究」之 473 篇文章，可歸類為七大主題，每一主題各有關鍵字。從每個主題的發表量(包括「發表..

With the rapid development of cross-strait situation, “Mainland China” as a subject of social science studies reflects different topics in different eras. This study applies an automatic content analysis tool(CATAR)to analyze the journal “Mainland China Studies”(1998-2015)to observe research trends based on clustering of the texts from the title and abstract of each journal article. The results show that the 473 articles published by the journal are clustered into seven salient topics. By publication n..

2017 年 6 月 18 日起，中印在洞朗地區(Doklam)對峙近兩月，造成中印邊界情況一時緊張，雖然兩方最後是在金磚五國峰會進行數日前解除對峙狀況，但是洞朗地區依然是餘波盪漾，兩方軍隊也並未撤軍，反而繼續在洞朗地區駐紮。洞朗事件爭論的焦點，表面雖然事涉洞朗的主權，但是深一層的原因可能是印度更擔心中方的修路行動將對印度的東北部，包括阿魯那恰爾邦(藏南地區)，產生戰略威脅。洞朗事件後，中印在邊界的互動模式將有所改變，而邊界氣氛緊張，也影響邊界談判，雙方雖在..

A military standoff lasted for over two months in Doklam between China and India since mid-June 2017, causing tension at the border. Although eventually the two sides disengaged days before the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, tension and speculations lingered in Doklam and troops are seen stationed in the area even in winter. The incident originates from the sovereignty dispute of Doklam, but at a deeper level, India has been concerned that China’s road construction in the area would cause strategic threats to the northeast, in..

本文以 Victor D. Cha 之日韓準同盟理論分析，探討日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上不斷出現合作與衝突局面擺盪的特性。由過去日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上之互動，可以看出以下的特性:(1)在雙邊關係上，當日韓兩國所面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「不對稱」時，如 1972 年 美國總統尼克森訪問中國之後，日、韓之間因此而產生衝突，並促使日韓各自試圖與中國合作;(2)當日韓兩國面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「對稱」時，如 1977 年美國總統..

This research analyzed the characteristics of repeated cooperation and conflicts between Japan and Korean over disputes of the East China Sea oil and gas field based on the Japan-Korea quasi-alliance model of Victor D. Cha. In previous disputes over the East China Sea oil and gas fields, the characteristics of Japan-Korea interaction are organized as follows: (1)When the instability level of abandonment or entrapment faced by Japan and Korea in their bilateral relationship is asymmetric, conflict arises between Kor..