美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上，美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜，混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件，美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述，單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議，以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例，試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例，美國..

How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..

本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際，兩國之間充滿競爭與合作，且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作，進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作，擱置爭議，為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境，但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇，作為避險。不過，因為缺乏互信，以及決策者面對的政治風險，有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如，在 2013 ..

This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..

「印度-太平洋」一詞近幾年成為眾所矚目的焦點，甚至迅速取代各界對於「亞洲-太平洋」的關注。不只是全球主要政治領袖紛紛關注「印太區域」的發展與榮景、積極凸顯「印太戰略」的重要性，而國際間重要外交政策智庫亦密集辦理會議及論壇，詳細比較區域國家的「印太政策」，試圖歸納出印太區域政經發展的當前圖象與未來路向。此種在戰略或政策論述上正逐漸由「亞太」朝「印太」轉向的變革，蔚為趨勢。本文將探討正在發展中的印太戰略，從區域內部與外部的形構動力著手，對照主要利害關係國的多元政..

Much attention has been paid to the notion and setting of “Indo-Pacific” in recent years. It becomes a buzzword, to some extent, replacing “Asia- Pacific” as the focal point in regional stability and prosperity among stakeholders in Asia. In order to better portray contesting approaches for Indo-Pacific engagement, this study explores driving forces that shape the current power configuration in the Indo-Pacific region, unfolds the development of Indo-Pacific strategies among major powers such as Japan,..

2017 年 6 月 18 日起，中印在洞朗地區(Doklam)對峙近兩月，造成中印邊界情況一時緊張，雖然兩方最後是在金磚五國峰會進行數日前解除對峙狀況，但是洞朗地區依然是餘波盪漾，兩方軍隊也並未撤軍，反而繼續在洞朗地區駐紮。洞朗事件爭論的焦點，表面雖然事涉洞朗的主權，但是深一層的原因可能是印度更擔心中方的修路行動將對印度的東北部，包括阿魯那恰爾邦(藏南地區)，產生戰略威脅。洞朗事件後，中印在邊界的互動模式將有所改變，而邊界氣氛緊張，也影響邊界談判，雙方雖在..

A military standoff lasted for over two months in Doklam between China and India since mid-June 2017, causing tension at the border. Although eventually the two sides disengaged days before the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, tension and speculations lingered in Doklam and troops are seen stationed in the area even in winter. The incident originates from the sovereignty dispute of Doklam, but at a deeper level, India has been concerned that China’s road construction in the area would cause strategic threats to the northeast, in..

2014 年 2 月爆發的烏克蘭危機是歐洲當前最嚴肅的區域安全挑戰，這不僅是因為烏克蘭危機使得歐洲再度出現區域衝突情勢，同時也因列強介入而使得地緣競爭強度漸趨激烈。學界多探討烏克蘭危機及其背後的歐洲地緣競爭意涵，然較少從烏克蘭內部安全策略選擇的角度分析，本文嘗試補充此等觀點，從內部因素出發，分析烏克蘭內部政治如何影響區域危機的發生。 本文認為:第一，烏克蘭受制於強權競爭，使烏克蘭與其他中間地帶國家，都必須在左右強權互動格局下進行回應與策..

Ukraine is situated strategically between EU and Russia. The outbreak of the Euromaidan Revolution(February 2014)designates the advent of severe geopolitical competition in the European continent. Though it is crucial to understand this competition through the lens of great power rivalry, small and medium countries that exert certain leverages between great powers also warrant our attention. We argue that the domestic approach is suitable to explain the transformation of Ukraine’s security choices. We first develop an a..