學界一般認為，冷戰結束後，隨著中國的快速崛起，包括越南在內的東亞小國對中國所採取的外交策略偏向「避險」或「接納」。文獻指出除了加強與中國的關係外，越南亦主動與各大國交好，並強調其要走著一個獨立、自主、多元且多方化的外交政策路線，此被視為越南對中國的「避險」策略。然而，本文認為有關越南對中國政策的分析較為單向，即大部分僅著重在越中關係本身的推拉力，而忽略了美國在其中的主動角色。 因此，無法說明越南對中政策近期的動態變化。本文的論點是，基於安全與國家利益的考量，..

The conventional wisdom assumes that East Asian countries have been adopting “hedging” or “accommodating” strategy toward China since the end of the Cold War. By putting forward an “independent, diversified and multidirectional foreign policy,” Vietnam has attempted to strengthen relations with a number of major powers, including China. As a result, Hanoi is regarded as a typical “hedger” towards Beijing. This paper, on the contrary, argues that the relating analyses on Vietnam&..

本文認為，「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權日本」(1931~1941)與「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權中國」(1993~2018)的比較，能為現今的美中關係提供許多建設性的思考。本文從既有強權的角度觀察其如何回應崛起強權;以Randall Schweller的歸納為基礎而建立一個相對完整的政策選擇全貌。作者發現:面對1931~1941年崛起的日本，美國先採「中立、綏靖」，後改採「制衡」，最終採「戰爭」。面對1993~2018年崛起的中國，美國以「交往」為基..

This paper argues that the comparative study of the two cases - the US dominant power vs. the Japan rising power (1931-1941) and the US dominant power vs. the China rising power (1993-2018) can provide ample constructive thinking on the contemporary US-China relations. This paper focuses on how a dominant power reacts to a rising power. An analytical framework of dominant powers’ policy options toward rising powers, based on Randall Schweller’s theories, is developed and applied to this study. This paper has found..

美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上，美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜，混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件，美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述，單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議，以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例，試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例，美國..

How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..

柔性平衡理論以不同於傳統平衡論的觀點解讀國家行為與互動，其認為國家在威脅不明或與他國利益相連等情況下，將透過迂迴隱晦的方式進行平衡。該理論近年來在國際關係學界中漸受關注，研究者們不僅運用其解讀現實案例，也對理論內涵提出許多評述與論辯。本文在回顧既有論著的基礎上探討該理論之內容並檢視各類平衡策略形態，以期呈現柔性平衡理論當前的整體發展狀況，並釐清其內容中的爭議處，以推動後續研究的進一步深化。  

The theory of “soft balancing” deals with the actions and interactions among states that is different from traditional balancing theories. The former features a belief that states achieve balances among themselves in indirect and covert ways under uncertain threats and interests pegged with other states. During the past few years, the theory of soft balancing has gradually gained prominence in academic circles of international relations. Researchers not only apply the theory while interpreting actual cases, but al..

近廿年來中俄關係已從友好的、建設性的成為戰略性的夥伴關係，進入中俄前所未有之友好高峰期。實際上，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係是中俄的權力分布共識與利益匯集於因應美國霸權的威脅，由於美國對外戰略牽動中、俄關係的發展，中俄雙邊互動也影響著大國權力平衡關係。中俄戰略協作夥伴關係的本質除了有關平衡美國霸權外，既有的雙邊共識與追求利益張力似正影響著雙邊關係的發展。隨著美國單極的鬆動與中國的崛起，中俄關係逐漸偏離傳統權力平衡的意涵，轉為更為複雜的「制度性平衡」。因此，本文結合新..

In the last two decades, China-Russia relations have turned from “friendly” and “constructive,” to “strategic partnership” and reached an unprecedented peak. Indeed, the nature of the China-Russia strategic partnership is based on the consensus of power distribution in East Asia, while facing threats from the United States hegemony and bilateral economic interdependence. The diplomatic strategy of the United States not only affects the development and bilateral interaction of China-Russia r..