尼加拉瓜前軍事將領Daniel Ortega,以38%得票率於2006年總統選舉獲勝當選。選後,許多分析家將Ortega勝選歸結為2000年選舉法及右派候選人分裂,而本文旨在利用尼國最高選舉委員會公布的選舉結果,重新檢視促成Ortega當選的這兩項原因之影響力。在交叉分析尼國選舉結果後,筆者發現勢均力敵的右派政黨候選人競爭形勢,使Ortega得以首輪當選。
Nicaragua's former military leader, Daniel Ortega, has won the 2006 presidential election with 38 percent of the vote in the first round. Some Analysts have argued after the election that there were two main factors - the 2000 election law and the division among the two rightwing candidates - that led to Daniel Ortega's victory. In this paper, the author aims to reexamine the influences of those two factors by using the election result released by the Nicaragua Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). In conclusion, the author fin..
經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,..
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and ..
作為德國歷史上的第一個民主政體─威瑪共和從誕生開始就是一個「生病的民主」,也是一個「沒有民主人的民主」。威瑪憲法的制定者除了架構起所謂的「程序性民主」之外,同時更在議會制的基礎上賦予民選的總統強大的權力─半總統制,加上欠缺民主文化,以及存在著反體制的政黨,致令威瑪憲法像是特洛伊木馬。最後在議會政治失敗的亂局中,希特勒(Adolf Hitler)率領納粹黨徒從木馬中一躍而出,用原本是保護民主的權力將民主政體合法地謀殺掉。 二戰後的聯邦德國..
As the first democracy in German history, the Weimar Republic was “a sick democracy”, and “a democracy without democrats” ever since it was born. The composers of the Weimar Constitution not only constructed a so-called “procedural democracy”, but also gave the extreme power to the people-elected president – semi-presidentialism – based on the foundation of parliamentary system. Furthermore, accompanied with a political climate that lacked democratic culture and existing parties..
後冷戰時期波蘭外交政策之轉變可謂歐洲政治發展過程中一個相當明顯且重要的變化,本文以外交ˋ政策分析架構來檢視波蘭後冷戰時期加入北約、歐盟以及美伊戰爭後的外交政策變化,這些政策變化的主要動力來自對權力追求的強度、對合乎國家利益的理性考量、心理因素如何影響外交政策制定以及探討歷史思維在政策制定過程中扮演之角色等。 本文認為波蘭外交政策變化之因在於 : 第一,加入北約是為了滿足對外部安全環境的需求,以外交政策調整發誓獲得安全保證,決策者透過實質理性判斷,滿足加入北約的心理與歷史需求。第二..
The shift in foreign policy of Poland during the post-Cold war period can be considered as a significant process in the development of the European politics. This study focuses on the changes of foreign policy structure of Poland after the joining of NATO, EU and the US-lead war on Iraq. The changes are motivated by the strength on pursuit of power, rationality of the state interest, and the ideological and historical influence on the foreign policy making. This analysis draws the conclusion to the cause in Polish foreign policy change...
本文主要分三大部分,首先從「新現實主義」、「新自由主義」與「善治」等三個角度,探索歐盟 (European Union/EU) 對中國政策的產出背景與運作邏輯。其次,本文將從實踐面著手,從歐盟與中國對彼此發表的八份文件,分析歐盟對中國政策的具體實踐,並檢視歐盟與中國在「軍售」、「WTO與市場經濟地位」以及「人權」三個問題上的互動與折衝。最後,本文將檢討與評估歐盟對中國政策的運作成效,以及歐盟內部成員國的立場對於歐盟對中國政策產出的影響,並展望歐盟的中國政策對其區域與全球戰略佈局的未來發展..
This article is divided into three major parts. It first explores the background and logic of EU's China policy from three aspectds : Neo-Realism, Neo-Liberalism and Good Governance. It then turns to practices and reviews EU's China policy based on eight documents issued by EU and China. It analyzes the reciprocity, negotiation, and compromise between EU and China on three issues of arms sales, WTO and market economy status, and human rights. In the final part, it reviews and evaluates the effect of EU's China policy and its mem..
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