2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆,是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期,這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻,雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動,發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此,若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整,則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除,使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解,關鍵不在美朝..
From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..
就非政府組織的「運作規模」而言,可將其分為「國際」與「在地」的非政府組織。面對緬甸相關問題,儘管國際非政府組織擁有專業與資源上的優勢,卻也有無能為力之時,必須搭配在地非政府組織的力量,甚至形成合作關係,方能更有效率地完成任務。有鑑於在地非政府組織對緬甸的重要性,本文由長期遭受緬甸政府忽視的「少數民族偏鄉發展」議題切入,並以「湄他發展基金會」、「沙龍基金會」與「人民亮光」等從事「克欽族」援助起家的在地非政府組織為例,詳述在地非政府組織與緬甸克欽族的互動情形,及..
The “scale of operations” of non-governmental organizations can be divided into either “international” or “domestic.” When dealing with problems in Myanmar, although international non-governmental organizations may hold advantages due to their professionalism and available resources; however, there are still situations where they may feel helpless and will need to rely on the help of other domestic non-governmental organizations or even form a collaborative alliance with them to carry out t..
過去多年間,中國在網路科技領域取得了突出的建設成果,成為當代國際網路事務要角。北京當局近期更提出「網路強國」戰略,試圖全面強化國家網路實力。中國在網路領域的進取,不僅對美國的固有優勢構成挑戰,也助長了美國政府對其戰略意圖的疑慮,從而增添雙邊關係的不穩定性。為瞭解中國網路建設藍圖與對美政策立場,本文審視了「網路強國」戰略的主要內容,及美國因素在其間的影響;同時透過國際關係研究中的「避險戰略」 探討中國對美網路互動態樣,說明中國政府如何在網路事務中,同步推動對美..
China has made huge advances in the field of cyber technology in the past few years and it is now an important player in international cyber affairs. Beijing recently introduced its ‘Cyber Power Strategy’ in a bid to comprehensively strengthen the nation’s cyber capabilities. China’s cyber ambitions not only constitute a real challenge to the U.S. but have also prompted concerns in Washington about China’s strategic purpose and have more uncertainty to their already unstable bilateral relations. ..
本文檢視 9 個在 2000 年至 2013 年與中華民國(以下簡稱臺灣)斷交的國家,以探討友邦與我斷交背後的中華人民共和國(以下稱中國)因素。本研究發現,對臺灣友邦來說,獲取來自中國在貿易、投資與金援的經濟考量,以及透過中國的支持提升其國際地位與穩固國內政權的政治考量,是影響友邦是否願意與臺灣延續外交關係的重要因素。大部分友邦在與臺灣斷交後,均能獲取大量來自中國的經濟與政治利益,即便是擁有長期穩固邦誼的友邦亦然。從友邦的角度來看,透過遊走於兩岸的外交競爭之..
This paper investigates the underlying China factor that played out when nine countries ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (hereafter called ‘Taiwan’). Research shows acquiring economic benefits from China, in terms of trade, investment and foreign aid, securing China’s support for enhancing international status and consolidating domestic political power are important factors when an ally of Taiwan considers breaking ties. Most allies receive immediate and significant political and economi..
在歐盟慶祝羅馬條約 60 週年前夕,歐洲統合面臨了英國公民投票決定脫離歐盟的震撼。英國脫歐究竟對歐洲統合產生何種意涵?是歐盟內部一持續爭辯中的議題。本文的目的在回答以下的研究問題:英國脫歐對歐洲統合產生何種意涵?公投出現脫歐的結果對歐盟傳遞出何種訊息?歐盟領袖是否正確解讀了這些訊息與意涵並給予正確的政策回應?經檢視對立性的論點之後,本文認為在公投中所顯示出的多項特質──不同社經階級所呈現出對立性的分裂投票-凸顯了必須正視經濟不公與分配不正義的急迫性與必要性。..
On the eve of the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Rome Treaty, European integration had suffered a setback with the U.K.’s decision to withdraw from the EU(Brexit). The implications for European integration are heavily contended in EU politics, but these are far from clear and will require further investigation. This paper attempts to explore the implications of Brexit for European integration. What messages does the U.K. referendum have for the EU? Have EU leaders interpreted these messages and implications and ..
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