2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆，是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期，這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻，雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動，發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此，若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整，則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除，使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解，關鍵不在美朝..

From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..

近廿年來中俄關係已從友好的、建設性的成為戰略性的夥伴關係，進入中俄前所未有之友好高峰期。實際上，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係是中俄的權力分布共識與利益匯集於因應美國霸權的威脅，由於美國對外戰略牽動中、俄關係的發展，中俄雙邊互動也影響著大國權力平衡關係。中俄戰略協作夥伴關係的本質除了有關平衡美國霸權外，既有的雙邊共識與追求利益張力似正影響著雙邊關係的發展。隨著美國單極的鬆動與中國的崛起，中俄關係逐漸偏離傳統權力平衡的意涵，轉為更為複雜的「制度性平衡」。因此，本文結合新..

In the last two decades, China-Russia relations have turned from “friendly” and “constructive,” to “strategic partnership” and reached an unprecedented peak. Indeed, the nature of the China-Russia strategic partnership is based on the consensus of power distribution in East Asia, while facing threats from the United States hegemony and bilateral economic interdependence. The diplomatic strategy of the United States not only affects the development and bilateral interaction of China-Russia r..

針對漸行漸遠的兩岸關係，對岸近年推出一系列的惠台、交流政策，試圖強化兩岸民間互動，促進雙方和平統一。此類政策核心環節之一是兩岸的青年交流，自 2004 年以降，邀訪活動即不斷擴大規模，參與頗為熱絡，但此類政策能否發揮部分人士憂慮的政治影響，目前似未見系統的實證研究。 有鑒於此，作者乃透過深度訪談，搭配以問卷分析，探討此類交流接觸經驗，能否轉變參與者的政治認知及政治認同。根據作者研究發現，參與此類活動後，台灣青年既有的刻板印象，產生相當顯著的變化，但若觸及深層..

To break the stalemate of today’s cross-Strait relations, China has formulated a series of policies recently to promote cross-Strait exchanges and in the end to create pro-unification interests in Taiwan society. One of the key elements of these policies is hosting student teams from Taiwan for a short visit to China. Since the year 2004, these student teams have attracted thousands of Taiwan college students each year and through these teams, the students had first-hand contacts with the Mainland Chinese society. But t..

在國際關係理論中，以主權國家為前提，以理性選擇為途徑，這種採用國家是單一理性行為體的假設，在解釋國際合作與否時，已經面臨到一些挑戰，換言之，非國家行為體亦扮演重要角色。另外，由新現實主義和新自由主義共同假定的制度結構，在日趨複雜的現實世界中，也不能完全理解真實國際社會合作發生的原因。因此，本文嘗試引用認知理論，藉共同認知變項的提出，並結合共同利益變項，透過整合制度結構和認知轉化的過程，導出一種國際合作框架。在驗證部份，本文採用賽局理論和列舉實際案例，說明制度..

In international relations, some theories explain international cooperation almost solely based on sovereign states and a presumed approach of rational choice. However, these hypotheses assume a state-actor, as a rational unit, will meet some unforeseen challenges, thus we need a non-state actor as another variable. Furthermore, an institutional structure of neo- realism’s and neo-liberalism’s hypothesis do not fully illustrate how international cooperation occurs in the real world. So we adopt both the cognitive ..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..