2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆，是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期，這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻，雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動，發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此，若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整，則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除，使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解，關鍵不在美朝..

From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..

過去多年間，中國在網路科技領域取得了突出的建設成果，成為當代國際網路事務要角。北京當局近期更提出「網路強國」戰略，試圖全面強化國家網路實力。中國在網路領域的進取，不僅對美國的固有優勢構成挑戰，也助長了美國政府對其戰略意圖的疑慮，從而增添雙邊關係的不穩定性。為瞭解中國網路建設藍圖與對美政策立場，本文審視了「網路強國」戰略的主要內容，及美國因素在其間的影響;同時透過國際關係研究中的「避險戰略」 探討中國對美網路互動態樣，說明中國政府如何在網路事務中，同步推動對美..

China has made huge advances in the field of cyber technology in the past few years and it is now an important player in international cyber affairs. Beijing recently introduced its ‘Cyber Power Strategy’ in a bid to comprehensively strengthen the nation’s cyber capabilities. China’s cyber ambitions not only constitute a real challenge to the U.S. but have also prompted concerns in Washington about China’s strategic purpose and have more uncertainty to their already unstable bilateral relations. ..

本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際，兩國之間充滿競爭與合作，且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作，進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作，擱置爭議，為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境，但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇，作為避險。不過，因為缺乏互信，以及決策者面對的政治風險，有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如，在 2013 ..

This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..

「印度-太平洋」一詞近幾年成為眾所矚目的焦點，甚至迅速取代各界對於「亞洲-太平洋」的關注。不只是全球主要政治領袖紛紛關注「印太區域」的發展與榮景、積極凸顯「印太戰略」的重要性，而國際間重要外交政策智庫亦密集辦理會議及論壇，詳細比較區域國家的「印太政策」，試圖歸納出印太區域政經發展的當前圖象與未來路向。此種在戰略或政策論述上正逐漸由「亞太」朝「印太」轉向的變革，蔚為趨勢。本文將探討正在發展中的印太戰略，從區域內部與外部的形構動力著手，對照主要利害關係國的多元政..

Much attention has been paid to the notion and setting of “Indo-Pacific” in recent years. It becomes a buzzword, to some extent, replacing “Asia- Pacific” as the focal point in regional stability and prosperity among stakeholders in Asia. In order to better portray contesting approaches for Indo-Pacific engagement, this study explores driving forces that shape the current power configuration in the Indo-Pacific region, unfolds the development of Indo-Pacific strategies among major powers such as Japan,..

蒙古位於亞洲內陸，夾處於中、俄兩大強國之間的戰略位置，使其曾長期被兩大強鄰視為領土的邊疆(frontier)。隨著 1991 年蘇聯瓦解，使近代蒙古第一次擁有完整主權。此後，蒙古的對外政策定調為「不結盟、等距離、全方位」，在「第三鄰國」戰略操作及地理條件基礎下，以平衡為原則，執行外交策略。誠然，蒙古如何在兩大強鄰之間求取平衡的生存之道，建構出獨立與靈活的外交及經貿空間，是蒙古確保國家安全的一大課題，也是本文的研究目的。  ..

Mongolia, with its strategic location between China and Russia in the inner Asia, is seen by its powerful neighbors for hundreds of years as a frontier. In 1991, modern Mongolia obtained complete sovereignty for the first time after the disruption of USSR, Hereafter, its foreign policy was principled upon “independence, non-alignment, multi-pillars”. Under the “third neighbor” strategy, Mongolia uses the opportunities endowed from its geography to balance neighboring threats, ensure its national securi..