本文旨在探討台北縣選民在 2005 年縣長與鄉鎮市長兩個不同層級選舉中的一致與分裂投票行為。本研究的重點在強調:欲瞭解選民於不同層級選舉中的投票行為，不但要關注各個層級選舉影響因素的異同，更需考量到兩項公職同時選舉時可能產生的相互影響。因此在本文中，除概述台北縣選民在這兩種選舉中的一致與分裂投票情形之外，亦嘗試以隨機效用(random utility)理論，推演兼顧上述兩個特性的雙變數「聯立式機率單元模型」 (simultaneous equations p..

This article examines the first ever simultaneous local elections of county and township magistrates in Taiwan in December, 2005. We argue that in order to fully understand the voting choices in simultaneous inter-level elections scholars need to take account not only those factors affecting each level’s election but also the interactions between different levels. There are two competing theories concerning the flow of causal influences, i.e., the bottom-up mass mobilization hypothesis and the top-down coat-tail effect ..

近年來，深綠選民經常認為是陳水扁總統在個人危機，或是民進黨在選戰中的主要訴求對象，因而凸顯了深綠選民的重要性。本文主要的目的在於探討深綠選民應該如何測量及定義，以及他們是否真的是泛綠陣營選票的主要來源。作者根據台灣意識、台灣人政權以及政黨認同的概念，建構三個不同的指標，以測量及定義深綠選民。分析結果發現:以指標的表現而言，三個指標各有其優缺點，但在 TEDS2005M 的資料中，以台灣人政權指標的整體表現較佳。三個指標所定義的深綠選民，投票給泛綠候選人的比例..

Conventional wisdom holds that when President Chen Shui-bian faces personal crises, as well as in the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DDP) election campaigns, Chen and the party always appeal to the so-called “deep- green voters” for support, such that these voters factor prominently in determining election outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to define and measure deep-green voters, and also to examine whether the support of deep- green voters is vital for the pan-green parties. The author creates three i..

台灣與俄羅斯都是在第三波民主化浪潮時，從威權或極權政體走向民主政體的國家。然而，兩國的民主政治發展卻有截然不同的結果。本文的主要目的，乃是在探討 1995 年至 2005 年之間，台灣與俄羅斯在民主發展上的異同。首先，針對民主鞏固之概念作概括性的整理與解釋;其次，說明台灣與俄羅斯民主發展之過程;接著，以民主轉型與民主鞏固的模型，深入比較台灣與俄羅斯民主化進程之差異;最後，則進一步提出台灣邁向民主鞏固與俄羅斯發生民主崩潰的觀察。 &..

Both Taiwan and Russia became democracies during the period of Third Wave of Democratization. However, the results of democratization for each turned out to be completely different. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the similarities and dissimilarities of democratic developments during the period of 1995-2005. The concept of democratic consolidation and relevant ideas is clearly explained in the first section, also showing the process of Taiwan and Russia’s democratic developments. In addition, models of demo..

後冷戰時期波蘭外交政策之轉變可謂歐洲政治發展過程中一個相當明顯且重要的變化，本文以外交ˋ政策分析架構來檢視波蘭後冷戰時期加入北約、歐盟以及美伊戰爭後的外交政策變化，這些政策變化的主要動力來自對權力追求的強度、對合乎國家利益的理性考量、心理因素如何影響外交政策制定以及探討歷史思維在政策制定過程中扮演之角色等。 本文認為波蘭外交政策變化之因在於 : 第一，加入北約是為了滿足對外部安全環境的需求，以外交政策調整發誓獲得安全保證，決策者透過實質理性判斷，滿足加入北約的心理與歷史需求。第二..

The shift in foreign policy of Poland during the post-Cold war period can be considered as a significant process in the development of the European politics. This study focuses on the changes of foreign policy structure of Poland after the joining of NATO, EU and the US-lead war on Iraq. The changes are motivated by the strength on pursuit of power, rationality of the state interest, and the ideological and historical influence on the foreign policy making. This analysis draws the conclusion to the cause in Polish foreign policy change...

2004年10月，第五屆亞歐會議在越南河內舉行，本屆亞歐會議可以視為歐洲與亞洲兩大區域的結合。亞歐會議雖然確立了「政治對話、經濟合作和文化交流」三大領域的合作關係，但是到目前卻仍然停留在相互對話及磨合的階段，連最初步的雙方共組自由貿易區都無法達成共識; 另外，不論從經濟面向或是政治面向來檢視，亞太地區仍然是東亞國家主要貿易往來的主體，同時亞太地區已經存在著亞太經合會的對話管道，甚至東亞地區的東協加三也正在逐漸成形，成為東北亞與東南亞的主要交流管道，因此，在沒有共同經濟利益的基礎之下，亞歐..

The 5th ASEM took place on October 2004 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Although ASEM is an informal forum, it was one of the most important cross-continental regime. Though the forum establishes the structure of “political dialogue, economical cooperation, and culture interflow”, the process still lodges on dialogues of two sides, even in the free trade area that was co-established, consensus is rare.  In addition, from both political and economical aspect, the Asian-pacific region still is the mainframe of East Asian trades; the A..