本文檢視 9 個在 2000 年至 2013 年與中華民國(以下簡稱臺灣)斷交的國家，以探討友邦與我斷交背後的中華人民共和國(以下稱中國)因素。本研究發現，對臺灣友邦來說，獲取來自中國在貿易、投資與金援的經濟考量，以及透過中國的支持提升其國際地位與穩固國內政權的政治考量，是影響友邦是否願意與臺灣延續外交關係的重要因素。大部分友邦在與臺灣斷交後，均能獲取大量來自中國的經濟與政治利益，即便是擁有長期穩固邦誼的友邦亦然。從友邦的角度來看，透過遊走於兩岸的外交競爭之..

This paper investigates the underlying China factor that played out when nine countries ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (hereafter called ‘Taiwan’). Research shows acquiring economic benefits from China, in terms of trade, investment and foreign aid, securing China’s support for enhancing international status and consolidating domestic political power are important factors when an ally of Taiwan considers breaking ties. Most allies receive immediate and significant political and economi..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..