2005年,印度與中國建立了「戰略合作夥伴關係」(strategic cooperative partnership),給予外界中印關係改善的印象。在現實情況中,中印的戰略夥伴關係呈現出在安全與經濟上的落差,較類似兩個原本敵意深重的發展中國家,為了經濟發展所進行的策略聯盟,以經濟發展為重,而與安全合作及解決主權與邊界爭議較無關。本文從決策者進行合作時的利益與成本考量的角度,探討中印「戰略夥伴關係」的發展前景。中印建構戰略夥伴關係,是決策者嘗試合作;是否能成功,取決於合作決策者認為合作能得到的利益比不合作得到的利益要來得高。在合作利益與各種合作成本的考量之下,包括決策者的政治利益與風險考量,形塑了中印戰略夥伴關係的原則以及特點,包括「發展中國家」身分、經濟主軸、強調平等、以及變動性。但是這些原則與特點,有時反而會增加中印之間的信任赤字,對於中印戰略夥伴關係的發展與政經與安全方面的合作,造成局限性。「戰略夥伴關係」是務實交往的策略之一,短期內可維持邊界的和平,但未來實質合作的發展性將可能受到限制。
In 2005, China and India established a “strategic cooperative partnership,” which led to rising optimism about China-India relations. This article discusses prospects of the China-India strategic partnership from the perspective of benefit and cost. The China-India strategic partnership is regarded as an attempt by the leaders of the two countries to change bilateral relations from non-cooperation to cooperation. The key to successful transformation lies in the fact that decision makers of both sides can recognize that common interests gained from cooperation is higher than interests gained from non-cooperation and independent action. A lack of mutual trust between China and India is the main reason for high costs of cooperation. The foundation and principles upon which the strategic partnership is constructed, characteristics of common interests including common identity as developing countries, economy focus, emphasis on equality, volatility, often increase the trust deficit. As a result, cooperation between China and India on politics, economy and security has been limited. For China and India, the strategic cooperative partnership has been a move of pragmatic engagement. In the short term, peace along the border can be maintained. However, substantial cooperation for mid- and long-term might be limited.
本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際,兩國之間充滿競爭與合作,且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作,進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作,擱置爭議,為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境,但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇,作為避險。不過,因為缺乏互信,以及決策者面對的政治風險,有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如,在 2013 ..
This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..
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