二十一世紀以來的國際發展援助議程益加強調援助有效性,如何確立援助過程中最後階段—政策到發展結果—的有效性,則與2015年 2019年與2021年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主,使用個體資料、應用因果推論方法、進行反事實分析緊密相關。本文回顧援助有效性的背景,介紹反事實分析的邏輯、方法,並透過訪談與文獻分析,檢視臺灣目前政府開發援助中,已獲學術期刊審查刊登的反事實分析案例,包括國際合作發展基金會在南太平洋島國吉里巴斯與馬紹爾群島的園藝計畫以及海地之糧食安全計畫。本文發現上述案例..
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the international development agendas have put more emphases on aid effectiveness. How to ensure the effectiveness from policies to development outcomes, the last stage of the aid process, is closely related to counterfactual analyses using micro-level data and causal inference techniques, recognized by Nobel Memorial Prizes in economics in 2015, 2019, and 2021. This paper reviews the background of aid effectiveness, introduces the logic and techniques of counterfactual analyses commonly used..
在解放軍發展反介入/區域拒止戰力的背景下,美國近期出現了「海空戰」作戰概念的倡議。此一作戰概念的內容堪稱完整而全面,也提出許多值得美軍採納的建議,但缺失也同樣明顯。其概念中的兩個作戰構想,深入中國大陸上空的空襲,與侵入第一島鏈之內的反潛作戰,都是執行困難且徒勞無功,更帶來沒有必要的升高風險,因而得不償失。其實,美國及其區域盟邦只要發展類似的反介入/區域拒止戰力,即可對解放軍可能的侵略與強制構成強大的抵抗力。
People’s Liberation Army is developing its anti-access/area-denial capabilities to offset U.S. military presence in the West Pacific. In response, the operational concept of the “AirSea Battle” is currently being put forward in the United States. However, useful recommendations notwithstanding, both of its two core ideas - deep strike over Chinese mainland and anti- submarine warfare within first island chain - are difficult, futile, and contenting unnecessary risks of escalation. In fact, the United States ..
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