近 400 年來的歐洲，是主權國家平等的「西發里亞體系」，以權力平衡維繫國際秩序;近 600 年以來的東亞，則是中國為天朝而四方小國臣服的「朝貢體系」，是上下層級的國際秩序。為何會有「朝貢體系」?它為何能運作?從現實主義式的觀點來看，「朝貢體系」只是一個包裝過的權力政治，骨子裡仍是物質上的利害與效益計算，中國霸權之下區域國家抵抗無望，不得不臣服。但是，從建構主義式的觀點來看，之所以會有「朝貢體系」的國際秩序，並不只是因為中國的強大，也是因為區域國家認同中國的..

For nearly four centuries, Europe had the so-called Westphalian System of sovereign states, in which balance of power was the basis of international order. In contrast, for nearly six centuries, East Asia had the so-called “tribute system,” a hierarchical order where China was the supreme leader. Why? From a realist perspective, the tribute system was just a wrapper over power politics based on material calculations of interest and benefit: East Asian countries had no choice but submission to China’s hegemon..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..