本文以土耳其以外的三個行為者-美國、伊拉克、歐盟-作為解釋近年來土耳其政府與境內庫德族關係改變的主要因素。美國與伊拉克的衝突造成伊拉克境內庫德族處境艱難,卻造就伊拉克庫德族與美國政府站在同一陣線的機會,觸動到土耳其政府的敏感神經。相對於美國傳統的權力觀,歐盟對於其他國家的重塑力在土耳其與庫德族的關係演變中獲得了彰顯。在此錯綜複雜的多邊關係中,美國與伊拉克庫德族的共同利益以及歐盟與土耳其庫德族的共同利益交織出土耳其政府愈來愈有限的庫德族政策選項。
This article looks into the changing relationship between the Turkish government and the Kurdish population within Turkey. In explaining changes in this relationship over the past twenty years, the roles of three external actors - the U.S., the Iraqi Kurds, and the EU - are brought into consideration. The Iraqi War prompted the U.S. government to have a cozy relationship with the Iraqi Kurds, a development that alarmed the Turkish government. In contrast with the conventional approach to power by the American government, the Europeans have successfully modified the behavior of the Turkish government, with the improvement of Turkish Kurds’ human rights situation being one example. The combined effects of all these external actors on Turkey are the increasingly limited options available to the government in terms of its policy towards the Kurds within its border.
2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..
在美國歷史上所簽訂的 14 項 FTA 中,NAFTA 與 CAFTA-DR 最能展現總統與國會在 FTA 政策制訂上所扮演角色與影響決策的程度,故本文以此兩項 FTA 作為研究美國 FTA 決策主體的案例。研究發現,在對外政策的決策主體的三種不同的模式:總統主導模式、國會主導模式與互動模式中,總統模式最能解釋美國 FTA 政策。總統具有龐大的國內外行政資源與政黨力量,可以干預國會的決策並改變個別議員的投票傾向,在不影響 FTA 基本內涵與目的下促使國會通過..
Among all 14 FTA’s signed by the U.S. in history, NAFTA and CAFTA-DR - selected by this paper as cases to identify the entity that owns the power of dominating the U.S. FTA policy - most represent the dynamics and impacts of President and Congress on the FTA policy formation. The research shows that among the three models of decision-making entities of foreign policy - President, Congress, and Interaction, the President model best explains the decision-making of FTA policies. President controls enormous external and int..
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