本文以 Victor D. Cha 之日韓準同盟理論分析,探討日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上不斷出現合作與衝突局面擺盪的特性。由過去日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上之互動,可以看出以下的特性:(1)在雙邊關係上,當日韓兩國所面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「不對稱」時,如 1972 年 美國總統尼克森訪問中國之後,日、韓之間因此而產生衝突,並促使日韓各自試圖與中國合作;(2)當日韓兩國面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「對稱」時,如 1977 年美國總統..
This research analyzed the characteristics of repeated cooperation and conflicts between Japan and Korean over disputes of the East China Sea oil and gas field based on the Japan-Korea quasi-alliance model of Victor D. Cha. In previous disputes over the East China Sea oil and gas fields, the characteristics of Japan-Korea interaction are organized as follows: (1)When the instability level of abandonment or entrapment faced by Japan and Korea in their bilateral relationship is asymmetric, conflict arises between Kor..
本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的..
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impa..
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