本文以 Victor D. Cha 之日韓準同盟理論分析,探討日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上不斷出現合作與衝突局面擺盪的特性。由過去日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上之互動,可以看出以下的特性:(1)在雙邊關係上,當日韓兩國所面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「不對稱」時,如 1972 年 美國總統尼克森訪問中國之後,日、韓之間因此而產生衝突,並促使日韓各自試圖與中國合作;(2)當日韓兩國面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「對稱」時,如 1977 年美國總統卡特提出駐韓美軍全面撤離的計畫之後,兩國之間於是產生合作的關係,並減少與中國合作的動力,乃使 1978 年 6 月 22 日《韓日大陸礁層共同開發協定》正式生效;(3)兩韓關係穩定,如 2000 年 6 月南北韓首腦會談後,打造了日韓在東海油氣田上合作的 機會;(4)中國若企圖破壞日本劃定的「日中中間線」,會促使日本以「韓日共同開發區域」的名義來拉攏韓國並進行低層次的合作,以加強「日中中 間線」的立場,如日、韓對於「韓日共同開發區域」探勘資料進行共同研究之事即為一例;(5)日本若過度忽略《韓日大陸礁層共同開發協定》傷害韓國利益,會促使韓國採取因應對策,來對付日本所主張的「中間線原則」,「2012 年大陸礁層劃界申請案」即為一例。若日韓雙方能在「韓日共同開發區域」深化實際性的合作,必將提高透過共同開發協定解決東海油氣田爭端之可能性。
This research analyzed the characteristics of repeated cooperation and conflicts between Japan and Korean over disputes of the East China Sea oil and gas field based on the Japan-Korea quasi-alliance model of Victor D. Cha. In previous disputes over the East China Sea oil and gas fields, the characteristics of Japan-Korea interaction are organized as follows:
(1)When the instability level of abandonment or entrapment faced by Japan and Korea in their bilateral relationship is asymmetric, conflict arises between Korea and Japan, and each of them tries to cooperate with China separately. An example was the case after the Nixon visit in 1972;(2)When the instability level of abandonment or entrapment faced by Japan and Korea in their bilateral relationship is symmetric, Japan and Korea forms a cooperative relationship, and the drive to cooperate with China decreases. One example was the official enactment of the Korea-Japan Agreement on Joint Continental Shelf Development on June 22, 1978, after President Carter proposed a plan to withdraw US forces in Korea;(3)After the June North- South Korean meeting in 2000, the inter-Korean relationship was stabilized, opening an opportunity for Japan and Korea to cooperate on the issue of East China Sea oil and gas field;(4)When China tries to incapacitate the Japan- China median line drawn by Japan, Japan involves Korea in the name of exploration data research, Korea-Japan Joint Development Zone(JDZ), to utilize a low-level Japan-Korea cooperation. By doing so, Japan solidified its stance on the Japan-China median line;(5)If Japan acts too passively in implementing the Korea-Japan Agreement on Join Continental Shelf Development and damages Korea’s national interests, Korea actively refutes Japan’s median line principle. A main supporting case was the Korean submission of formal report to the CLCS in 2012;(6)After the rise of China, a change in the East China Sea situation is all the more desired. However, as the US pursues a pivot to Asia, more difficulties are expected in Japan-Korea cooperation in the East China Sea oil and gas fields.
本文旨在分析日本戰前藩閥與戰後自民黨派閥政治的關連,明瞭在歷史因素下政治寡頭者理念的傳承,且進一步影響現今政治的運作。以往有關派閥政治的研究,多數是以選區制度、權力均衡等觀點進行探討,然本文認為尚可由制度與歷史的因果關係,探究制度的動態與變遷、制度的柔軟性和限制性等要素說明。故本文取日本藩閥與派閥之例,認為兩者之間藉由近代政黨政治運作連結而起,對應政府體制轉變,成為民主政治理念的展現。本文發現近代日本藩閥政治與自民黨派閥的連續性上,存在有保守與改革派意識形態的對抗,藉由依賴路徑發展而來的..
This paper’s purpose is to analyze the relationship between the pre-war Hanbatsu politics and the post-war factional politics in Japan in order to understand the continued ideals of the political oligarchy and their effect on the operations of present politics. In terms of the studies on factional politics in Japan, most scholars use the viewpoints of the election system or the balance of power, etc. However, this paper tries to explore factional politics from the institutional and historical cause and effect viewpoint. To do so, this..
選舉制度的設計,不僅攸關各國政黨體制的運作與國家政府體制的鞏固,甚至對政府執政領導人事的更迭、政策制定的變遷,均有深刻的影響。對選民投票行為來說,更會因不同選制結構而展現出不同的決策思維。因此選制的相關規範設計,無疑是形塑先進民主國家政治體制運作的基礎,而選制變革過程中所產生的政治效應,更值得學界深入進行評估與檢驗。 本文根據日本選舉研究(JES)所彙整的定群追蹤調查,針對九零年代日本新舊選制的轉換過程,探析選民對政黨支持偏好的動態過程..
Electoral system is imperative to define the party system in a country. It also helps to consolidate the political regime, to formulate public policies, and to alternate government leaders in the office. From the constituent’s point of view, different electoral rules influence the behaviors and the way of voting as well. It is therefore without question that the electoral system is essential to regulate political systems in any democracy. This paper, based on the panel data collected from the Japanese Electio..
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