當美中兩大強權在東亞仍然維持既競爭又合作的態勢時,避險(hedging)遂成為亞太國家一個務實且富有彈性的外交政策選擇。本文認為,中國的「夥伴關係」外交在學理與實務上確實與傳統軍事聯盟存有差異。中國在後冷戰時期國際社會缺少意識形態對抗的背景下推動「夥伴關係」外交,透過改善對外關係而拉攏國際支持,進而使得周邊國家享有更多採取避險戰略的空間。南韓作為美國的亞太盟國,在美中之間的避險即為一項例證。本文認為,除非國際情勢與國際結構有明顯變化,短期之內中國應該不至於放..
As the United States and China have remained the competition and cooperation in East Asia, hedging has become a pragmatic foreign policy object for the secondary states in the region. This article explores the differences between China’s “partnership” and traditional military alliances, attempting to explain the lack of a clear ideology in the post-Cold War era and its impacts on states’ hedging. Due to the strategy of “partnership” rather than the traditional military alliance, it has prov..
本文藉由闡述韓國的中國情結因素如何影響對華關係,補充現有國際關係理論對於分析朝貢體制以及情義精神的不足。中國情結脫胎於傳統華夷秩序與朝貢關係中的事大主義,係韓國對於符合中華文明典範的中國政權之情感依託與效忠。然而不同於強調名份尊卑與實力差距的事大主義,中國情結重視中國統治者須具備儒家文明性與對外鋤強扶弱的精神,成為近現代韓國依從中國的重要根源。由於明帝國義無反顧地援助李氏朝鮮抵禦日本入侵,事大主義因而轉化為中國情結,使得朝鮮拒絕向文化低落的滿清低頭,直到滿清..
What is “Chinese Complex” and how does it affect Korea’s foreign relations with China? We examine the effect of Chinese Complex by using the salient historical analogy between the Ming-Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China (R.O.C)-the People’s Republic of China (P.R.C). We conceptualize Chinese Complex as the persistent emotional attachment to a legitimately civilized Chinese reign with Confucian ethical responsibility. The distinctive Sino-Korean tributary relation fostered the idea of China Complex ..
本研究目的在於,從中國與北韓的國家利益角度,分析金正恩時期中朝之間合作與衝突的背景,進而探討雙方關係的走向。自習近平與金正恩於 2013 年分別出任中國與北韓的國家元首以來,由於中朝兩國皆採取對對方國家利益有所損失的政策,使雙方關係陷入緊張。就北韓的國家利益而言,穩定以金正恩為首的共產黨政權為第一要務。因此,金正恩上台之後,繼承金正日的「先軍政治」,持續研發軍事科技,進行試射導彈、第 3 次核試爆,採取「經濟、核武建設並進路線」,以凝聚國內團結,且處決危及金..
The purpose of this project is to analyze the historical background of co- operation and conflict between China and North Korea during the Kim Jung- un era from both Chinese and North Korean’s national-interest perspective, as well as the direction of bilateral relationships. Since Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un took office as China and North Korea’s head of state in 2013 respectively, both countries have been adopting policies to lose their people’s national interest from each other, which in turn have caused g..
2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆,是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期,這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻,雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動,發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此,若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整,則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除,使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解,關鍵不在美朝..
From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..
本文以 Victor D. Cha 之日韓準同盟理論分析,探討日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上不斷出現合作與衝突局面擺盪的特性。由過去日、韓雙方在東海油氣田爭端上之互動,可以看出以下的特性:(1)在雙邊關係上,當日韓兩國所面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「不對稱」時,如 1972 年 美國總統尼克森訪問中國之後,日、韓之間因此而產生衝突,並促使日韓各自試圖與中國合作;(2)當日韓兩國面對的「拋棄」或「牽連」的不安感程度為「對稱」時,如 1977 年美國總統..
This research analyzed the characteristics of repeated cooperation and conflicts between Japan and Korean over disputes of the East China Sea oil and gas field based on the Japan-Korea quasi-alliance model of Victor D. Cha. In previous disputes over the East China Sea oil and gas fields, the characteristics of Japan-Korea interaction are organized as follows: (1)When the instability level of abandonment or entrapment faced by Japan and Korea in their bilateral relationship is asymmetric, conflict arises between Kor..
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