學界一般認為,冷戰結束後,隨著中國的快速崛起,包括越南在內的東亞小國對中國所採取的外交策略偏向「避險」或「接納」。文獻指出除了加強與中國的關係外,越南亦主動與各大國交好,並強調其要走著一個獨立、自主、多元且多方化的外交政策路線,此被視為越南對中國的「避險」策略。然而,本文認為有關越南對中國政策的分析較為單向,即大部分僅著重在越中關係本身的推拉力,而忽略了美國在其中的主動角色。 因此,無法說明越南對中政策近期的動態變化。本文的論點是,基於安全與國家利益的考量,越南自2014年至2019年間對中國的政策已經從「避險」轉向「軟制衡」。本文認為,這種改變由「懲罰性因素」及「激勵性因素」所驅動。懲罰性因素乃為中國自2014年之後所給越南帶來的壓力和威脅比此前更為明顯,表現在於中國在南海的強硬姿態、越南過度依賴中國經濟等,使得越南要在「抗衡」與「扈從」之間做出選擇,而難以繼續維持其過往模棱兩可的「避險」策略。激勵性因素所指的是美國因素,近年,為了圍堵和遏制中國的崛起,美國不斷地拉攏中國周邊國家,其中越南成為美國戰略佈局中的重點國家之一。而另一方面,越美兩國之間存在諸多戰略利益上的交匯,使得越南更願意接受美國的示好。進一步靠攏華盛頓可以使得河內擁有更多的籌碼來應對北京。不過,越南的抗衡舉動尚處於較為「低調且軟性」的程度,故本文稱之為「軟制衡」。
The conventional wisdom assumes that East Asian countries have been adopting “hedging” or “accommodating” strategy toward China since the end of the Cold War. By putting forward an “independent, diversified and multidirectional foreign policy,” Vietnam has attempted to strengthen relations with a number of major powers, including China. As a result, Hanoi is regarded as a typical “hedger” towards Beijing. This paper, on the contrary, argues that the relating analyses on Vietnam’s China policy are somewhat one- sided, i.e. primarily focusing on the Vietnam-China relations themselves, but neglecting the initiative role of the United States. Consequently, they cannot demonstrate some recent dynamic changes in Vietnam’s China policy. This paper contends that Vietnam’s China policy gradually shifted from hedging to soft balancing from 2014 to 2019 given considerations for its security and national interests. This change is largely prompted by both “punitive factor” and “incentive factor”. The former is defined as the obvious pressure and threats posed by China since 2014, which includes China’s unyielding stance in the South China Sea, Vietnam’s excessive dependence on China’s economy, etc. Vietnam is, thus, forced to choose either balancing or bandwagoning in the continuum instead of its ambivalent hedging strategy. On the other hand, the incentive factor refers to the United States’ inducing Vietnam into its quasi coalition targeting at containing China’s rise due to Vietnam’s growing role in its strategic layout. At the same time, Vietnam has become more willing to embrace the America’s inducements given the increasingly converging strategic interests between the two countries. Moving closer to Washington gives Hanoi more bargaining chips to handle with Beijing. Yet, such balancing act of Vietnam is still in low profile, which can be addressed as “soft balancing”.
2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..
2011 年 5 月 2 日美國特種部隊攻擊賓拉登(Osama bin Laden)之住處並且結束長達十年對於頭號國際恐怖分子的追擊,在此之後,各國對於此事件的反應呈現出不同的面貌。本文將以實證方法研究美國與各國的外交關係、各國對賓拉登事件的反應、主要媒體評論之間的互動關連,整理出支持與不支持美國的總表。本研究亦將思考:在採取爭議性的方法達成其國家利益的同時,美國霸權是否可以在未來持盈保泰?本研究所採取的新聞分析方法,是否能夠提供外交政策研究更多的可能性? ..
As the U.S. special forces thundered into Bin Laden’s compound and terminated the decade long chase of the most wanted terrorist on May 2, 2011, the global reaction to this incident presented diverse versions for interpretation. This empirical study answers the questions: can the U.S. identify those who support or oppose its foreign policy by their reactions to the Bin Laden incident? By probing into the governmental archives and major media in selected countries, this research answers two more important questions: has ..
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