1992 年以來,蓋達組織的戰略行為是跨國界、不分軍民的恐怖攻擊。蓋達恐怖組織主要以打擊西方世界與其盟友的利益,為主要目標,形成國際安全的巨大威脅。本文使用文本、歷史、迷思與信仰四個文化要素,以蓋達組織為例,試圖理解宗教導向恐怖組織的戰略行為;以《古蘭經》與《聖訓》 為主的伊斯蘭宗教文本,賦予蓋達組織戰略脈絡;二戰後的歷史經驗,形成蓋達組織將西方勢力逐出伊斯蘭世界的戰略目標:源於極端伊斯蘭思想的理念迷思,將「聖戰」作為恐怖攻擊的戰略手段;最後賓拉登的信仰,落實在教令中,賦予蓋達組織全球恐怖攻擊的戰略意義。
Since 1992, al-Qaeda's strategic behavior is characterized by its cross- border and indiscriminate massive terror attacks with both military personnel and civilians as targets. Al-Qaeda’s goal is to strike the interests of the Western and its allies, thus posing a dangerous threat to international security. This article attempts to use four cultural elements – text, history, myths and beliefs – to understand the strategic behavior of al-Qaeda that is religious- oriented. “Quran" and “hadith”, the main sources of Islam, provide al-Qaeda strategic contexts. The historical experience after World War II shaped al- Qaeda’s strategic objectives to expel Western influences out of the Islamic world. The myth stemmed from extremist Islamic ideology that defined "jihad" as strategic means of terrorist attacks. Finally, the beliefs of Osama bin Laden were implemented in fatwa, which provided al-Qaeda terrorist attacks strategic meaning.
本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際,兩國之間充滿競爭與合作,且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作,進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作,擱置爭議,為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境,但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇,作為避險。不過,因為缺乏互信,以及決策者面對的政治風險,有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如,在 2013 ..
This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..
2016 年夏,歐盟面臨近 20 年來恐怖主義威脅的最高峰。2015 年初開始,伊斯蘭恐怖分子陸續對法、比、德等國境內大城發動恐怖攻擊,使歐洲國家陷入極度恐慌。本文從歐洲恐怖主義的歷史背景出發,討論歐洲恐怖主義意識形態基礎的轉變,並描述伊斯蘭國對歐洲的威脅。此外,歐洲外交安全政策、內部移民問題與社會問題、聖戰意識形態、網路科技等因素,皆對歐洲近期恐怖主義的發展,產生重大影響。此一波歐洲恐怖攻擊方式,主要 以孤狼式攻擊為主,而歐洲聯盟也以內部與外部行動,企圖回..
In the summer of 2016, Europe was facing its biggest terrorist threat of the last two decades. Form the beginning of 2015, Islamic terrorists have launched a series of attacks on major cities in France, Belgium and Germany. The EU has been in a state of panic after the attacks. First, this article discusses the transformation of terrorist ideology in Europe from a historical background and describes the threat of the Islamic State. In addition, the European foreign and security policy, immigration and social problems, jihadis..
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