二十一世紀以來的國際發展援助議程益加強調援助有效性,如何確立援助過程中最後階段—政策到發展結果—的有效性,則與2015年 2019年與2021年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主,使用個體資料、應用因果推論方法、進行反事實分析緊密相關。本文回顧援助有效性的背景,介紹反事實分析的邏輯、方法,並透過訪談與文獻分析,檢視臺灣目前政府開發援助中,已獲學術期刊審查刊登的反事實分析案例,包括國際合作發展基金會在南太平洋島國吉里巴斯與馬紹爾群島的園藝計畫以及海地之糧食安全計畫。本文發現上述案例..
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the international development agendas have put more emphases on aid effectiveness. How to ensure the effectiveness from policies to development outcomes, the last stage of the aid process, is closely related to counterfactual analyses using micro-level data and causal inference techniques, recognized by Nobel Memorial Prizes in economics in 2015, 2019, and 2021. This paper reviews the background of aid effectiveness, introduces the logic and techniques of counterfactual analyses commonly used..
中國自1978年改革開放以來,隨著快速的工業化與城市化的發展,國家糧食安全與糧食自給率的確保一直受到高度的重視。然隨著2001年加入世界貿易組織,國際農產品貿易日趨熱絡,糧食自給率逐漸下降,因此引發一個問題,即中國糧食安全程度是否逐漸惡化?糧食安全與貿易自由化是互補關係,抑或是互斥關係?本研究利用經濟學人信息社(Economist Intelligence Unit,以下簡稱:EIU)建構的全球糧食安全指標(Global Food Security Inde..
Food self-sufficiency rate has been the major food security indicator for policy decision-making in China for a very long time. However, after reform and opening the country with increasing international trade, the self-sufficiency ratio of food has gradually decreased, which raises the question, is there a gradual deterioration of China’s food security? This study uses the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) constructed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), consisting of three sub-indexes, namely affordability, avail..
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