學界一般認為,冷戰結束後,隨著中國的快速崛起,包括越南在內的東亞小國對中國所採取的外交策略偏向「避險」或「接納」。文獻指出除了加強與中國的關係外,越南亦主動與各大國交好,並強調其要走著一個獨立、自主、多元且多方化的外交政策路線,此被視為越南對中國的「避險」策略。然而,本文認為有關越南對中國政策的分析較為單向,即大部分僅著重在越中關係本身的推拉力,而忽略了美國在其中的主動角色。 因此,無法說明越南對中政策近期的動態變化。本文的論點是,基於安全與國家利益的考量,越南自2014年至2019年間對中國的政策已經從「避險」轉向「軟制衡」。本文認為,這種改變由「懲罰性因素」及「激勵性因素」所驅動。懲罰性因素乃為中國自2014年之後所給越南帶來的壓力和威脅比此前更為明顯,表現在於中國在南海的強硬姿態、越南過度依賴中國經濟等,使得越南要在「抗衡」與「扈從」之間做出選擇,而難以繼續維持其過往模棱兩可的「避險」策略。激勵性因素所指的是美國因素,近年,為了圍堵和遏制中國的崛起,美國不斷地拉攏中國周邊國家,其中越南成為美國戰略佈局中的重點國家之一。而另一方面,越美兩國之間存在諸多戰略利益上的交匯,使得越南更願意接受美國的示好。進一步靠攏華盛頓可以使得河內擁有更多的籌碼來應對北京。不過,越南的抗衡舉動尚處於較為「低調且軟性」的程度,故本文稱之為「軟制衡」。
The conventional wisdom assumes that East Asian countries have been adopting “hedging” or “accommodating” strategy toward China since the end of the Cold War. By putting forward an “independent, diversified and multidirectional foreign policy,” Vietnam has attempted to strengthen relations with a number of major powers, including China. As a result, Hanoi is regarded as a typical “hedger” towards Beijing. This paper, on the contrary, argues that the relating analyses on Vietnam’s China policy are somewhat one- sided, i.e. primarily focusing on the Vietnam-China relations themselves, but neglecting the initiative role of the United States. Consequently, they cannot demonstrate some recent dynamic changes in Vietnam’s China policy. This paper contends that Vietnam’s China policy gradually shifted from hedging to soft balancing from 2014 to 2019 given considerations for its security and national interests. This change is largely prompted by both “punitive factor” and “incentive factor”. The former is defined as the obvious pressure and threats posed by China since 2014, which includes China’s unyielding stance in the South China Sea, Vietnam’s excessive dependence on China’s economy, etc. Vietnam is, thus, forced to choose either balancing or bandwagoning in the continuum instead of its ambivalent hedging strategy. On the other hand, the incentive factor refers to the United States’ inducing Vietnam into its quasi coalition targeting at containing China’s rise due to Vietnam’s growing role in its strategic layout. At the same time, Vietnam has become more willing to embrace the America’s inducements given the increasingly converging strategic interests between the two countries. Moving closer to Washington gives Hanoi more bargaining chips to handle with Beijing. Yet, such balancing act of Vietnam is still in low profile, which can be addressed as “soft balancing”.
本文探討法國印太戰略對歐盟與臺灣影響,認為法國的印太戰略在美 國與中國競逐的壓力下,採取了積極的策略,並影響歐盟印太合作戰略的 方向。法國的印太戰略以捍衛國家安全為核心,採取積極避險策略,一方 面希望提升法國在歐盟內部的影響力,另一方面則希望促進歐盟與印太國 家的經貿合作,幫助歐洲擺脫美國在烏克蘭危機上對歐洲的控制和主導。 法國的積極作為促使歐盟印太合作戰略增強與印太地區國家發展多邊關 係,並有助於將臺灣納入歐盟印太地區整體的安全與經濟合作框架中。
This article explores the impact of France’s Indo-Pacific strategy on the European Union and Taiwan. It argues that, under the pressure of competition between the United States and China, France has adopted a proactive strategy that influences the direction of the EU’s Indo-Pacific cooperation strategy. Centered on safeguarding national security, France takes an active hedging strategy on the Indo-Pacific region. On one hand, France seeks to enhance its influence within the EU; on the other hand, it aims to promote economic and ..
北京倡議的「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」(簡稱:亞投行),在華府眼中,卻認為會挑戰到當今美國主導的全球經濟秩序。事實上,資本額度僅 1000 億美元的亞投行,無法撼動美國在全球金融政治中的主導地位。美國對亞投行戒慎恐懼,真是美元的地位受到威脅?亞投行的設立是否真能實踐人民幣國際化的目標?本文主張,中國應支持亞投行以美元發行(而非人民幣計價) 的「亞投行債券」,並同時設立「帶路基金」發行人民幣計價的「帶路基金債券」。如此,中國才得逐步降低對美國國債的過度依賴,掌握到..
Beijing launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)in order to offer financial resources for more investments to Asian countries in need. To some extent, the US$ 100 billion AIIB is not supposed to impose any serious threat to U.S. dominance in global finance. Why does the U.S. fear the China-led AIIB? Would the establishment of AIIB speed up decline of the dollar as an international currency? Is the AIIB likely to contribute to further internationalization of the renminbi(RMB)? This paper contends that China shou..
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