印度GDP(PPP)居世界第三,其外交動向值得關注。考提利亞在 《利論》中基於現實主義國際觀而提出六種對外策略:「和、戰、靜待、 往征、托庇、貳端」,反映出對於地理鄰近性與權力平衡的考量。本文批 判性梳理中、英、日文學界的相關研究,修正對考提利亞策略內涵的誤 讀,並指出其思想對現代印度外交戰略的影響。
India’s GDP (PPP) is the third largest in the world, and its diplomacy warrants attention. Based on the realist international perspective, Kautilya proposed sixfold foreign strategies: “peace, war, staying quiet, marching, seeking refuge, and double stratagem”, reflecting the consideration of geographical proximity and balance of power. This paper critically reviews the relevant studies in Chinese, English, and Japanese, corrects the misreading of Kautilya’s strategic connotation, and points o..
本文檢視2005年以降日印兩國建構在外交、經濟、與防衛等領域合作的制度化過程,是否意味著將邁向同盟關係發展。日印兩國與中共之間分別存在著領土主權爭議,再加上中共積極擴大在印太區域的軍事存在,平衡中共威脅成為日印發展戰略合作的重要動機。2014年9月,日印將兩國戰略合作關係提升為「特別戰略性全球夥伴關係」,勾勒出雙方戰略合作 的路線圖,以共同發展印太區域的自由、開放、繁榮,以及確保印太海洋的交通線安全。不過,受限於國內共識與軍事實力不足,以及擔憂中共採取反制措施,短期內日印兩國不可..
This article examines the institutionalized development of diplomatic, economic, and defense cooperation between Japan and India since 2005, and whether or not both countries will move toward an alliance. To clarify further, Japan and India have disputes over territorial sovereignty with China, and China has actively expanded its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, balancing China’s threats has become an important motive for Japan- India to develop strategic cooperation. Since September 2014, Japan and India have promo..
國家間發生領土爭端時,常以展現或威脅使用軍事力量為主要威逼手段,若爭端國互不相讓,往往會陷入緊張的軍事對峙,隨時可能升級為全面武裝衝突。本文檢視此類不實際動武的軍事對峙,並提出兩個因素可有助緩和軍事對峙。首先,反覆僵持的爭端使雙方主動管理對峙行為,避免容易造成衝突升級的意外;再者,未定邊界或領土為雙方使用武力的緩衝地帶,針對爭議領土展示或威脅使用武力變成可理解的經常事件,對爭端國而言,爭議區域的武裝對峙或軍事行動不被視為立即的挑戰或威脅,衝突方傾向避免對峙惡..
States often make coercive threats by showing or threatening to use military force during territorial disputes. Disputants may be mired in intense military standoff if no parties would stand down in a dispute. The tense situation may escalate into armed conflicts. This article examines military standoff short of the use of force. It presents two variables that could alleviate military standoff. First, disputants will take measures to manage their conflict behavior when repeated conflicts yield no clear resolution to a territo..
本文主軸在於檢視國家身分認同因素對印度外交政策長期與深層的影響,從新古典現實主義結合體系結構與單元層次的分析架構下,抽取出做為中介變數的身分認同因素是如何干擾印度對於體系壓力的回應,同時提供觀察印度政策選擇的另一種理論途徑。目的在於指出,欲理解印度外交政策具有的特質,必須輔以「後殖民身分認同」的干擾變數,而伴隨後殖民國家身分認同而來的戰略自主,則有助於解釋為何印度對美國總是存有不信任感,雙方戰略夥伴關係難以真正落實。未來印度視印美關係為一個戰略機會(現實主義..
The paper aims to examine the long-term and deep impact of national identity on India’s foreign policy. In order to address the objective and develop an alternative approach, the study is conducted using the Neo-Classical Realism theory, which combines analyses on systemic structure and states’ behavior at the unit-level, while emphasizing the factor of national identity on the formation of India’s foreign policy and its responses to systemic pressure. This paper argues that it is imperative to take account ..
本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際,兩國之間充滿競爭與合作,且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作,進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作,擱置爭議,為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境,但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇,作為避險。不過,因為缺乏互信,以及決策者面對的政治風險,有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如,在 2013 ..
This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategi..
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