日本首相握有解散眾議院的權力，眾議院解散後必然伴隨著眾議院的改選，而眾議院的多數勢力得以組閣執政，掌握國家龐大的政治資源。取得政權是政黨的最優先戰略目標，因此首相會選擇有利的時機解散眾議院。 以往的研究指出，首相解散眾議院通常有先決條與最佳時機。但是，安倍首相於 2014 年 11 月宣布解散眾議院的狀況，不同以往，甚至安倍首相自身提出的以暫緩提升消費稅為解散的理由，對選民而言亦欠缺說服力。既然如此，安倍首相為何還是宣布解散眾議院?本文..

The Japanese prime minister is empowered to dissolve the House of Representatives, which sets a stage for a general election that enables the parliamentary majority to form a new cabinet. The prime minister will choose a favorable opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives in order to retain the regime. Previous studies have indicated that there are certain conditions and optimal timing for the prime minister to disband the House of Representatives. However, the dissolution announced by Prime Minister Abe..

本研究探討 2003~2006 年期間，哈馬斯的政治轉型與其「抵抗方案」的關係。哈馬斯全名為「伊斯蘭抵抗運動」(Islamic resistance movement)，因過去在以色列境內，從事自殺炸彈活動，被西方國家列入恐怖組織名單。 2006 年 1 月 25 日巴勒斯坦舉行議會大選，出乎眾人意料，哈馬斯成為選舉最大贏家。許多學者認為哈馬斯在政治上的轉型並非偶然。例如 2003~2006 年期間，即使哈馬斯發動多起自殺炸彈攻擊，但受到外在與內在環境的改變..

The aim of this paper is to examine Hamas’ political transformation by scrutinizing its resistance project between 2003 and 2006. Hamas is an acronym of the ‘Islamic resistance movement’, which was founded in 1987. Due to its past record of suicide bombings inside Israel, Hamas had, in the past, been viewed by some Western countries as a terrorist organization. However, since the Palestinian Legislative Council(PLC)election held in January 2006, Hamas unexpectedly had the capability of forming a government i..

本文的目的在於探討蜜月期選舉時程如何在半總統制下，對前三大政黨在國會選舉時的表現，產生不同於在總統制下所產生的影響。本文認為，由於總統制與半總統制的權力分立程度不同，所以導引出來的蜜月期選舉效應也就相異。根據既有文獻可知，在總統制下，因為權力完全分立，總統黨與第三黨在以具有比例性的選制所進行的蜜月期國會大選中會選得比較好，但本文認為這個效應無法類推到半總統制國家。在半總統制下，因為權力只有部分分立，國會大選是行政權選舉的第二階段，所以即便在蜜月期選舉時程中，..

This paper aims at exploring how semi-presidentialism differs from presidentialism in affecting electoral performance of three largest parties in honeymoon elections. This paper argues that different levels of power separation in presidentialism and semi-presidentialism explain why the effects of honeymoon elections vary. Many existent studies indicated that in presidential systems, with total power separation, the largest and the third largest parties would gain in honeymoon elections that used proportional electoral systems..

選舉制度影響政黨體系，是廣為人知的因果推論。依此邏輯，若以政黨體系為因，以選舉制度的變化為果，即產生內生性的選制變遷理論。然而，某些研究者仍認為選制變革起於和政黨體系無關的外生因素。本文主張，選制變遷是否受到政黨體系的影響，取決於選制的種類。第一，有利大黨的多數決選制如果始終未出現一黨過半，則國會屬於多黨制，有可能因為小黨組成多數聯盟而改採比例性選制。尤其當現狀為並立式單一選區兩票制時，可能因為小黨的議席多來自政黨名單，而比代表區域主義的多數決選制更容易導致..

It is well known that electoral system shapes party system. By this logic, an endogenous explanation for changes in electoral systems should treat party system as the cause and changes as the consequence, in sharp contrast with theories attributing changes to exogenous factors that are irrelevant to party system. This paper argues that whether changes in electoral system are caused by party system depend on the type of the electoral system. First, if a majority party never emerges from a majoritarian electoral system, minor p..

過去的研究指出在 1996 至 2008 年臺灣四次總統選舉中，認同是一個影響選民投票抉擇的重要因素，在 2012 年的總統選舉中，認同是否仍然為一個重要的影響因素，是本文的主要探討問題。本文首先從認同理論的界限設定觀點，討論臺灣認同的階段，提出臺灣認同已從第一階段的「省籍」對立，到第二階段的「臺灣意識/中國意識」之爭，而在兩岸恢復交流後，因為認同界限的改變(臺灣 vs.中國)，進入到第三階段的「國家認同」層次。在第三個階段，臺灣與中國之間存在文化聯繫與政治..

Previous studies show that identity is an important factor in voting choice in the past four Taiwanese presidential elections between 1996 and 2008. This paper aims to explore whether identity still retains its impact on voting choice in the 2012 presidential election. The author starts with the discussion on the development of the Taiwan identity. Theoretically, identity can be regarded as a type of boundary setting and its development includes three stages. The first stage is the distinction between Benshengren and Mainland..