2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..

1990年統一前，東德由德國社會主義統一黨進行威權統治，西德則為一個自由民主國家，政黨在公平的競爭制度中運作。兩德統一後，政治制度迥異的兩個體系在重整過程中，必然會出現嚴重的磨合現象。不同於以往探究政黨體系僅重視體系內單純的「相關性政黨數字」的變化，與政黨「意識形態」距離與強度的差異，本論文試著從「社會分歧」(social cleavage)出發，觀察德國統一以來，社會結構分歧程度與政黨反應此基礎所呈現的互動關係，並說明政黨勢力的興衰，如何合作結盟或是分裂結構，已呈現德國政黨體系的內涵特..

Before German unification in 1990, East Germany/GDR was authoritarian-governed by the Socialist Unity Party of Germany and West Germany/FRG was a democratic state with a relatively fair competitive party system. Serious conflicts between totally different political systems must have emerged when they started to become a unified state. Differing from the traditional approach to studying party systems through party numbers and ideologies, the author will, through “social cleavage,” examine how German parties reflect the change of ..