2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決定。本文發現促成美、玻、委三方 在 2008 年採取克制態度處理衝突事件的主要因素是,衝突事件當時的不一致訊息及複雜的情勢所致,因為在無法判定風險與代價高低時,決策者通常避免過早做出決定以減少錯誤,因而延後對外使用武力及衝突爆發的時間。
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ intentions, and image of hostility are employed in examining why the three countries involved decided to back down from the confrontation. The author finds that the main reasons for this were inconsistent information and the complexity of the situation. In a situation in which it is impossible to calculate risks and costs, policymakers often postpone making decisions in order to minimize mistakes, thus deferring the use of military force and the outbreak of conflicts.
國際政治經濟學(簡稱國政經)自 70 年代開始發展以來,不僅呈現出理論(自由主義、重商主義與馬克思主義)與研究途徑(理性主義與反思主 義)的競逐,同時也有美國(American School)與不列顛學派(British School)間關於學科定位、研究議題與方法論上的差別。本文主要目的在於從三個面向來介紹及探討國政經的不列顛學派:一、為何該學派被稱為 British School?與國際關係英國學派(English School)有何差別?二、不列顛學派..
Since the 1970s, the International Political Economy(IPE)has explored various research methodologies and methods. However, the disciplinary boundary of IPE is still controversial. The main purpose of this article is to discuss the British School of IPE from three dimensions. First, why is this school called “British?” Are there differences between the British School and the English School of international relations? Secondly, British School scholars prefer to call this new discipline the” Global Political Ec..
本文分析美國貿易授權法時期(2002~2007年)FTA的簽訂策略。影響 美國簽訂FTA策略的因素大致可分為外在因素與國內因素兩類。外在因素包括了九一一恐怖攻擊事件、中國崛起、東亞經濟整合、歐盟東擴、WTO 談判受挫、FTA盛行,以及歐盟與中國在拉美的勢力逐漸擴張等因素。國內因素則是由於貿易授權法的通過,國會進一步賦予行政部門對外談判的權力與快速立法程序,使美國從過去強調多邊主義的政策,轉變為多邊主義與雙邊主義並行。美國採取競爭自由化的貿易政策,使用自由貿易..
This article analyzes the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) strategy adopted by the United States during the valid period of the Trade Promotion Authority Act (2002~2007). Because of the external factors, such as 911 terrorist attacks, rise of China, the economic integration of East Asia, EU’s expansion, the frustration of WTO negotiations, the fashion of FTA, the EU and China’s expanding influence toward Latin America, and other domestic factors such as the power of negotiation and the fast track procedure offered by th..
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