二十一世紀以來的國際發展援助議程益加強調援助有效性，如何確立援助過程中最後階段—政策到發展結果—的有效性，則與2015年 2019年與2021年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主，使用個體資料、應用因果推論方法、進行反事實分析緊密相關。本文回顧援助有效性的背景，介紹反事實分析的邏輯、方法，並透過訪談與文獻分析，檢視臺灣目前政府開發援助中，已獲學術期刊審查刊登的反事實分析案例，包括國際合作發展基金會在南太平洋島國吉里巴斯與馬紹爾群島的園藝計畫以及海地之糧食安全計畫。本文發現上述案例..

Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the international development agendas have put more emphases on aid effectiveness. How to ensure the effectiveness from policies to development outcomes, the last stage of the aid process, is closely related to counterfactual analyses using micro-level data and causal inference techniques, recognized by Nobel Memorial Prizes in economics in 2015, 2019, and 2021. This paper reviews the background of aid effectiveness, introduces the logic and techniques of counterfactual analyses commonly used..

日本於2000年實施長照制度，服務的提供幾乎以營利的私部門為主，公部門和非營利組織所占比例有限，形成「以私為主，以公為輔」的服務供給模式。然而，如是的改變能否發揮公私「相互支應」的功能？在公私版圖大移轉的情況下，公私部門之間的關係有何轉變，又產生哪些問題？這些都是本文所欲探究的問題。 研究發現，日本照護服務的供給確實發揮公私相互支應的功能，在政府全國一致的價格管制下，雖然供給主體也有所不同，但因藉由準公共機關來彌補吸脂效應所產生的缺失，故能使基本照護服務勉強取得平衡，現階段服務供..

Japan adopted the long-term care insurance in 2000, with the majority of the services provided by the private sector, and a limited proportion provided by the public sector and non-profit organizations. The services therefore is mainly provided by the private sector and supplemented by the public sector. However, would this change be able to facilitate mutual support among the public and private sector? What kind of relationship change and issues would occur under the public-private transition? These are the questions that would be discusse..