日本「防衛計畫大綱」的制定模式隨內外環境變化，政治菁英與官僚的政策功能不斷改變，而政官之間互動也成為影響防衛政策內容的主因。過去四期的制定模式變化從冷戰期間高度左右意識形態對立下政治菁英消極參與及官僚有限主導、冷戰後政黨脆弱共識下政治菁英有限參與及官僚有限主導、到 911 事件後內閣強力主導下官僚被動配合、與民主黨執政下的多元政治參與及官僚擔任專業幕僚，逐漸形成政官分工架構。其中，內閣與執政黨負責提供政治領導、政策方向、與政黨間共識形成;防衛官僚認知國際局勢..

The making of Japan’s National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG)has been shifting from a limited bureaucratic-centric model under domestic ideological confrontation and political elites’ limited participation during and after the Cold War to the division of labor between political and bureaucratic elites during Koizumi’s “Kantei Diplomacy” and the Democratic Party of Japan(DPJ)era. The Cabinet and ruling party provide political leadership, policy direction, and consensus formation in the ruling c..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..