大喜馬拉雅流域因全球暖化導致冰川消融，面臨河川水量下降與乾旱危機。因這些河川多係跨界，水資源匱乏引起各國間的緊張，其中尤以中共與印度兩大強權關係最受矚目。中印跨界河川源頭都在中共控制的西藏高原，中共「南水北調」工程及在布拉馬普特拉河上游築壩，讓印度深感威脅，在缺乏水資源合作及資訊分享機制下，兩國現實主義的傾向，進一步惡化既存緊張關係，也使兩國水戰爭陰影揮之不去。  

The glaciers melting of the Great Himalayan basin due to global warming has resulted in river water shortage and drought crises. As many rivers of the area are trans-boundary waters, water scarcity has aroused tension between countries. The relationships between the two powers – China and India – attract the most attention. As the sources of all shared rivers between the two countries lie on the Tibetan Plateau, which is under control of China, China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project has thus posed si..

新現實主義針對外部平衡提出了許多的模型，但卻未能說明國家為何，以及如何在不同類型的內部平衡間進行選擇，以回應外在的壓力。要解釋一國在軍事政策上的變化，必須以一種結合體系與單元雙層次變數的理論進行分析，而這種理論的基礎即是目前方興未艾的新古典現實主義。不過，新古典現實主義雖注意到了單元層次的重要性，卻仍忽略了國家行為邏輯的雙重性，亦即，國家除了權衡利害關係(後果性邏輯)以做出決策外，在此過程中，也會受到文化因素(適當性邏輯)的影響。本研究即是希望能夠透過理論綜..

There are many models of external balancing based on neo-realism. Nevertheless, not all can interpret why and how states choose among different types of internal balancing strategies to response the extrinsic stress. To understand the change of a state’s military policy, neoclassical realism integrates the system-level and unit-level variables. However, it still ignores the dual nature of the logic of state’s action, namely, besides interest, the influence of culture. Hence, a new “secure arming” model..