2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..