本文主要關注後冷戰時期，面對中國崛起，美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析，統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應，而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外，統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中，美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應，顯示泰國面對大國政治的..

Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impa..

在解放軍發展反介入/區域拒止戰力的背景下，美國近期出現了「海空戰」作戰概念的倡議。此一作戰概念的內容堪稱完整而全面，也提出許多值得美軍採納的建議，但缺失也同樣明顯。其概念中的兩個作戰構想，深入中國大陸上空的空襲，與侵入第一島鏈之內的反潛作戰，都是執行困難且徒勞無功，更帶來沒有必要的升高風險，因而得不償失。其實，美國及其區域盟邦只要發展類似的反介入/區域拒止戰力，即可對解放軍可能的侵略與強制構成強大的抵抗力。  

People’s Liberation Army is developing its anti-access/area-denial capabilities to offset U.S. military presence in the West Pacific. In response, the operational concept of the “AirSea Battle” is currently being put forward in the United States. However, useful recommendations notwithstanding, both of its two core ideas - deep strike over Chinese mainland and anti- submarine warfare within first island chain - are difficult, futile, and contenting unnecessary risks of escalation. In fact, the United States ..

儘管阿弘認為自己的國際政治理論只適用於冷戰時期，但基於 20 世紀中葉以來日益強調不確定性的科學走向，並參照摩根索、瓦爾茲等人對科學概念的理解，今天似乎可以從三個知識論層級看出他的理論並沒有過時的問題:第一、在元理論層次，他以一系列的二律背反和特殊符碼，點明了許多不確定性的問題;第二、在元結構層次，他透過社會學與歷史學的方法論，將當事人與政治實體推出更嚴謹的二項式互動結構;第三、在實踐學層次，他對一系列外交行為提出二律背反的探索，從而不但超越了精確科學在確定..

It is with regards of the importance of the uncertainty for the current scientific philosophy that we want to interpret the theory of the international relations of the Cold War by Raymond Aron, using the comprehension which is concerned with the scientific conceptions of Mogenthau, Waltz, and others; and we want to verify not only that this theory keeps a sort of efficiency until today, but also that Aron has found some theories about the uncertainty on a higher level. We first want to show, in the field of metathe..

後冷戰時期波蘭外交政策之轉變可謂歐洲政治發展過程中一個相當明顯且重要的變化，本文以外交ˋ政策分析架構來檢視波蘭後冷戰時期加入北約、歐盟以及美伊戰爭後的外交政策變化，這些政策變化的主要動力來自對權力追求的強度、對合乎國家利益的理性考量、心理因素如何影響外交政策制定以及探討歷史思維在政策制定過程中扮演之角色等。 本文認為波蘭外交政策變化之因在於 : 第一，加入北約是為了滿足對外部安全環境的需求，以外交政策調整發誓獲得安全保證，決策者透過實質理性判斷，滿足加入北約的心理與歷史需求。第二..

The shift in foreign policy of Poland during the post-Cold war period can be considered as a significant process in the development of the European politics. This study focuses on the changes of foreign policy structure of Poland after the joining of NATO, EU and the US-lead war on Iraq. The changes are motivated by the strength on pursuit of power, rationality of the state interest, and the ideological and historical influence on the foreign policy making. This analysis draws the conclusion to the cause in Polish foreign policy change...

1991年蘇聯解體之後，中亞成為全球安全局勢最具挑戰的地區之一，強權在中亞的權力競逐亦日趨白熱化。對積極邁向世界強權的歐盟而言，中亞天然資源豐富又位居反恐戰略要衝地位，是兵家必爭之地，但受制於地緣政治因素，歐盟在中亞儼然還不是戰略玩家，其與中亞國家之關係迄今仍根據1999年生效的「夥伴暨合作協定」，缺乏一套完整的戰略規劃。2003年11月喬治亞爆發「玫瑰革命」，隨後又在前蘇聯地區引發連鎖效應，使歐盟在中亞的戰略再成討論議題。 本文主要係從歐盟「歐洲睦鄰政策」的面向切入，分別檢視歐..

Central Asia reemerged from the collapse of the USSR in 1991 as one of the political and security challenging regions, intensifying the struggle among competing powers. The region's natural resources and strategic importance on anti-terrorism are critical for EU striving to achieve a global great power. But restricted by geo-politics, EU has not become a strategic player in Central Asia. The only legal framework of EU-Central Asian bilateral relations was the “Partnership and Cooperation Agreement” (PCA) since 1999, lacking ..