過去幾年來，民粹與右翼的政治勢力在許多民主國家持續成長，尤其是歐洲地區。以德國為例，「德國另類選擇黨」（AfD）以反歐盟、反移民政策為代表，並且在2017年聯邦眾議院選舉中，一口氣以12.6%的得票率拿下94席成為第三大黨，也是最大的在野黨。後續在2021年的選舉中， AfD拿下10.3%的選票，維持一定的影響力。在當前右翼、民粹的政治勢力對民主形成的挑戰中，社群媒體中的臉書成為一個重要的工具性角色。在臉書的經營策略上，右翼、民粹的政黨往往以聳動、煽動的言語攻擊既有的體制與主流政黨，激化..

In the past few years, the right-wing populist parties are rising in many democracies especially in Europe. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is known for its opposition to the EU and immigration policy of Germany. AfD has won 94 seats (12.6%) in the 2017 German Federal Election and became the third largest party as well as the largest opposition party. In the 2021 Federal Election, AfD still won 10.3% of the vote and 83 seats. In this wave of populist forces on democracy, social media plays an important role. In terms ..

本研究從民眾認知外在威脅的觀點，分析其在2020年的總統選舉中，如何影響其投票行為。在2019年的年初，中國國家主席習近平提出「一國兩制，台灣方案」之後，蔡英文總統給予強力的回應，伴隨同年六月間香港升高的「反送中運動」，讓中華民國會不會因為中國大陸的威脅而消失的「亡國感」發酵，成為影響2020年選舉的重要關鍵。 本研究運用在2020年的選舉前後執行的定群追蹤調查，分析民眾是否具有「亡國感」的感受。我們發現，擔心因為被中國大陸統一而讓中華民國消失的民眾比較較高，超過五成一。我們進一..

From the perspective of possible external threat, this study analyzes how voters’ perceptions of external threat might affect their vote choice in the 2020 Presidential election in Taiwan. After Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the ‘one country, two systems’ Taiwan formula” in January of 2019, President Tsai Ing-wen gave a strong response. Along with the “Anti-Extradition Movement” in Hong Kong in June of the same year, the “sense of national subjugation (wangguo gan)” fermented by the pos..

政黨政治向來為研究憲政運作、民主深化的核心議題。過往的研究，多將政黨政治視為影響憲政與民主的自變項，但憲政特性以及民主轉型的過程，也可能系統性的影響政黨體系，對於政黨體系變遷的規模、機率，存在一定的關連性。基於此，本文以政黨體系變遷為依變數，從制度特性以及民主化背景來觀察政黨體系變遷的特性。核心假設有三：首先，就制度特性而言，直選總統的國家，比起議會內閣制的國家，政黨體系變遷的機率較高、規模較大；第二，以選舉時程而言，也是制度面向的因素，在直選總統的國家中，同時選舉或蜜月選舉，因為總統衣..

Party politics is an important issue to explain the constitutional work and consolidation of a democracy, and especially for newly democracies. If the party system would be affected by different types of constitutional systems and historical legacy, the party system should also be changed. We have three hypotheses: first, we suppose those countries with a directly elected president will have a higher probability for party system change. And the smaller parties are more likely out of parliament. Second, based on the coattail effect, countrie..

在德國多層級聯邦體制和單一選區兩票聯立制(Mixed-member pro-portional representation, MMP)作用下，聯邦眾議院(Bundestag)與邦議會(Landtag)選舉，常因不同層級間之政治連結(Politikverflechtung)，形成相互影響的關係。故選民常將聯邦政府的執政效能，在邦議會選舉中直接歸責於執政黨在邦層級對應的參選政黨，而邦議會選舉因此也被視為「測試性選舉」(Testwahl)。依「次級選舉」(The..

Under the influence of the German multi-level federal system and mixed- member proportional representation (MMP), the Bundestag (the Federal Parliament) and the Landtag (the Representative Assembly) elections often form interrelated and interactive relations due to the political connections (Politikverflechtung) characteristic of different government levels. Therefore, in an ongoing Landtag election, voters often directly attribute the federal government’s ruling efficiency to the ruling party’s standing counterpa..

日本首相握有解散眾議院的權力，眾議院解散後必然伴隨著眾議院的改選，而眾議院的多數勢力得以組閣執政，掌握國家龐大的政治資源。取得政權是政黨的最優先戰略目標，因此首相會選擇有利的時機解散眾議院。 以往的研究指出，首相解散眾議院通常有先決條與最佳時機。但是，安倍首相於 2014 年 11 月宣布解散眾議院的狀況，不同以往，甚至安倍首相自身提出的以暫緩提升消費稅為解散的理由，對選民而言亦欠缺說服力。既然如此，安倍首相為何還是宣布解散眾議院?本文..

The Japanese prime minister is empowered to dissolve the House of Representatives, which sets a stage for a general election that enables the parliamentary majority to form a new cabinet. The prime minister will choose a favorable opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives in order to retain the regime. Previous studies have indicated that there are certain conditions and optimal timing for the prime minister to disband the House of Representatives. However, the dissolution announced by Prime Minister Abe..