政黨政治向來為研究憲政運作、民主深化的核心議題。過往的研究，多將政黨政治視為影響憲政與民主的自變項，但憲政特性以及民主轉型的過程，也可能系統性的影響政黨體系，對於政黨體系變遷的規模、機率，存在一定的關連性。基於此，本文以政黨體系變遷為依變數，從制度特性以及民主化背景來觀察政黨體系變遷的特性。核心假設有三：首先，就制度特性而言，直選總統的國家，比起議會內閣制的國家，政黨體系變遷的機率較高、規模較大；第二，以選舉時程而言，也是制度面向的因素，在直選總統的國家中，同時選舉或蜜月選舉，因為總統衣..

Party politics is an important issue to explain the constitutional work and consolidation of a democracy, and especially for newly democracies. If the party system would be affected by different types of constitutional systems and historical legacy, the party system should also be changed. We have three hypotheses: first, we suppose those countries with a directly elected president will have a higher probability for party system change. And the smaller parties are more likely out of parliament. Second, based on the coattail effect, countrie..

本文的目的在於探討蜜月期選舉時程如何在半總統制下，對前三大政黨在國會選舉時的表現，產生不同於在總統制下所產生的影響。本文認為，由於總統制與半總統制的權力分立程度不同，所以導引出來的蜜月期選舉效應也就相異。根據既有文獻可知，在總統制下，因為權力完全分立，總統黨與第三黨在以具有比例性的選制所進行的蜜月期國會大選中會選得比較好，但本文認為這個效應無法類推到半總統制國家。在半總統制下，因為權力只有部分分立，國會大選是行政權選舉的第二階段，所以即便在蜜月期選舉時程中，..

This paper aims at exploring how semi-presidentialism differs from presidentialism in affecting electoral performance of three largest parties in honeymoon elections. This paper argues that different levels of power separation in presidentialism and semi-presidentialism explain why the effects of honeymoon elections vary. Many existent studies indicated that in presidential systems, with total power separation, the largest and the third largest parties would gain in honeymoon elections that used proportional electoral systems..

法國第五共和體制向為半總統制的主要原型典範，並為穩定半總統制的代表，但法國各界對此一制度設計一直有著許多爭論與修改意見。2007 年法國總統大選前，各主要政黨候選人紛紛提出「第六共和」(la VIe République)的憲政倡議。法國新任總統薩科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)於 2008 年進行自 1958 年第五共和以來最大規模的一次修憲。修憲主要方向同時強化總統與國會的權力，在總統權力部分修憲後強化總統的國會咨文權，形同間接賦予總統的行政優勢..

The French Fifth Republic (la Ve République) is not only the prototype of semi-presidentialism but also the typical model of “stable semi- presidentialism,” of which the French political circle and academia have never stopped their criticism over the design of the French Fifth Republic and have consistently expressed their opinions of modification. Even before the 2007 French presidential election, most of the major parties simultaneously advocated a new constitutional engineering plans of “la VIe Républiq..