政黨政治向來為研究憲政運作、民主深化的核心議題。過往的研究，多將政黨政治視為影響憲政與民主的自變項，但憲政特性以及民主轉型的過程，也可能系統性的影響政黨體系，對於政黨體系變遷的規模、機率，存在一定的關連性。基於此，本文以政黨體系變遷為依變數，從制度特性以及民主化背景來觀察政黨體系變遷的特性。核心假設有三：首先，就制度特性而言，直選總統的國家，比起議會內閣制的國家，政黨體系變遷的機率較高、規模較大；第二，以選舉時程而言，也是制度面向的因素，在直選總統的國家中，同時選舉或蜜月選舉，因為總統衣..

Party politics is an important issue to explain the constitutional work and consolidation of a democracy, and especially for newly democracies. If the party system would be affected by different types of constitutional systems and historical legacy, the party system should also be changed. We have three hypotheses: first, we suppose those countries with a directly elected president will have a higher probability for party system change. And the smaller parties are more likely out of parliament. Second, based on the coattail effect, countrie..

在德國多層級聯邦體制和單一選區兩票聯立制(Mixed-member pro-portional representation, MMP)作用下，聯邦眾議院(Bundestag)與邦議會(Landtag)選舉，常因不同層級間之政治連結(Politikverflechtung)，形成相互影響的關係。故選民常將聯邦政府的執政效能，在邦議會選舉中直接歸責於執政黨在邦層級對應的參選政黨，而邦議會選舉因此也被視為「測試性選舉」(Testwahl)。依「次級選舉」(The..

Under the influence of the German multi-level federal system and mixed- member proportional representation (MMP), the Bundestag (the Federal Parliament) and the Landtag (the Representative Assembly) elections often form interrelated and interactive relations due to the political connections (Politikverflechtung) characteristic of different government levels. Therefore, in an ongoing Landtag election, voters often directly attribute the federal government’s ruling efficiency to the ruling party’s standing counterpa..

日本首相握有解散眾議院的權力，眾議院解散後必然伴隨著眾議院的改選，而眾議院的多數勢力得以組閣執政，掌握國家龐大的政治資源。取得政權是政黨的最優先戰略目標，因此首相會選擇有利的時機解散眾議院。 以往的研究指出，首相解散眾議院通常有先決條與最佳時機。但是，安倍首相於 2014 年 11 月宣布解散眾議院的狀況，不同以往，甚至安倍首相自身提出的以暫緩提升消費稅為解散的理由，對選民而言亦欠缺說服力。既然如此，安倍首相為何還是宣布解散眾議院?本文..

The Japanese prime minister is empowered to dissolve the House of Representatives, which sets a stage for a general election that enables the parliamentary majority to form a new cabinet. The prime minister will choose a favorable opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives in order to retain the regime. Previous studies have indicated that there are certain conditions and optimal timing for the prime minister to disband the House of Representatives. However, the dissolution announced by Prime Minister Abe..

本研究探討 2003~2006 年期間，哈馬斯的政治轉型與其「抵抗方案」的關係。哈馬斯全名為「伊斯蘭抵抗運動」(Islamic resistance movement)，因過去在以色列境內，從事自殺炸彈活動，被西方國家列入恐怖組織名單。 2006 年 1 月 25 日巴勒斯坦舉行議會大選，出乎眾人意料，哈馬斯成為選舉最大贏家。許多學者認為哈馬斯在政治上的轉型並非偶然。例如 2003~2006 年期間，即使哈馬斯發動多起自殺炸彈攻擊，但受到外在與內在環境的改變..

The aim of this paper is to examine Hamas’ political transformation by scrutinizing its resistance project between 2003 and 2006. Hamas is an acronym of the ‘Islamic resistance movement’, which was founded in 1987. Due to its past record of suicide bombings inside Israel, Hamas had, in the past, been viewed by some Western countries as a terrorist organization. However, since the Palestinian Legislative Council(PLC)election held in January 2006, Hamas unexpectedly had the capability of forming a government i..

本文的目的在於探討蜜月期選舉時程如何在半總統制下，對前三大政黨在國會選舉時的表現，產生不同於在總統制下所產生的影響。本文認為，由於總統制與半總統制的權力分立程度不同，所以導引出來的蜜月期選舉效應也就相異。根據既有文獻可知，在總統制下，因為權力完全分立，總統黨與第三黨在以具有比例性的選制所進行的蜜月期國會大選中會選得比較好，但本文認為這個效應無法類推到半總統制國家。在半總統制下，因為權力只有部分分立，國會大選是行政權選舉的第二階段，所以即便在蜜月期選舉時程中，..

This paper aims at exploring how semi-presidentialism differs from presidentialism in affecting electoral performance of three largest parties in honeymoon elections. This paper argues that different levels of power separation in presidentialism and semi-presidentialism explain why the effects of honeymoon elections vary. Many existent studies indicated that in presidential systems, with total power separation, the largest and the third largest parties would gain in honeymoon elections that used proportional electoral systems..