本文以角色理論的分析架構探討土耳其於敘利亞北部所開展的三次軍事行動，包括：2016年「幼發拉底之盾行動」、2018年「橄欖枝行動」與2019年「和平之泉行動」。角色理論探討國家與他者互動過程中「驅動菁英的行為」，同時討論「國內政治與制度」，如何透過領導人而呈現出外交政策的樣貌，究係關心他者反應的「角色接受者」，或是強調自我認同的「角色創造者」？是強調國家利益的「獨立角色」？亦或是在乎他者認同的「互動角色」？ 據此，本文第一部分將從角色理論與土耳其過去的角色定位談起，進而分析三次行動下..

This paper deals with Turkey’s military deployments, including “Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016, Operation Olive Branch in 2018 and Operation Peace Spring in 2019 with theoretical analysis of “role theory”. Scholars of role theory focus on interactive process of “State” and “Others”. They not only analyze “what motivates political elites’ behavior”, but also discuss domestic politics and institution and their impacts on leaders and foreign policies. In response to other st..

本文主要的目的在於爬梳社會科學方法論中因果機制分析的發展和演進，並進一步評估政治學研究中如何運用因果機制來進行解釋以及討論相關的解釋效力的問題。本文將具體評析政治學國際關係領域中民主和平論之論點，以此來衡量政治學運用因果機制解釋的優勢和侷限。因果機制研究層面上，本文聚焦在機制的定義和類型、機制的觀察性、因果機制與因果關係、法則和中介變數的差異、機制的層次、機制的運作和測量、機制的路徑圖。因果機制運用層面上，本文側重於民主和平論的源起和演進、 民主和平論的重要論述、對於民主和平論的挑戰以及..

The main purpose of this paper is to parse out the development and evolution of causal mechanism and to further evaluate how political research adopts the method of causal mechanism to explain and discuss the explanatory effect in the field of qualitative methods. Our focus is to shed light on the causal mechanism of democratic peace theory in the field of international relations and to gauge its advantages and restraints. On the dimension of causal mechanism, this paper focuses on the definition of mechanism, observation of causal mechanis..

東協各國政府廣泛地認為，南海爭端是冷戰後東南亞主要的「衝突引爆點」。它也對東協的團結及其有關和平解決爭端的規範帶來了嚴峻的考驗。由於並非所有東協成員國都是南海島礁的聲索國，因此，東協對南海的共識與立場始終受到各國在南海不同利益的影響而罕有「一致性」，而東協決策的模式也顯示其南海政策立場的結構性問題。對南海衝突管理與海域劃界涉及的東協會員國至少有越南、菲律賓、馬來西亞與汶萊，印尼和新加坡的立場也值得關注。本文目的是探討作為一個整體的東協，如何回應南海緊張局勢的..

The South China Sea(SCS)dispute was widely viewed by ASEAN governments as the major ‘flashpoint of conflict’ in the post-Cold War Southeast Asia. It also posed a serious test of ASEAN’s unity and of its norms concerning peaceful settlements of disputes. Because not all ASEAN member countries are the claim countries of the SCS islands and reefs, therefore, the consensus and position of ASEAN on the SCS have always been rare "consistency" due to different interests in the SCS. ASEAN decision-making s..

國際原子能總署(IAEA)所倡議之核燃料多邊化方案，試圖透過多邊化機制，設立 IAEA 核燃料銀行，集中全球核燃料的生產、供應與銷售，從而避免各國在製造和平使用目的核燃料的保護傘下，研發並製作核武級原料，增加核武擴散之風險。IAEA 核燃料循環多邊化倡議之發展，涉及一國能否取得民用核燃料之供應保證，擁有核濃縮與再處理權利，以及擁有再處理技術會否遭遇國際制約的問題。該等倡議一旦成形，即可能開啟核條約課予第三國義務之濫觴，並衝擊 NPT 締約國和平使用核能之權益..

The nuclear fuel multilateral program promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attempts to use multilateral mechanisms to establish the IAEA Nuclear Fuel Bank, in order to concentrate the worldwide production, supply and sale of nuclear fuel. The purpose of the program is to prevent countries from, under the guise of producing nuclear fuel for peaceful aims, to research, develop and manufacture weapon-grade nuclear raw materials, which increases the risk of nuclear proliferation. The development of IAEA multi..

當代民主和平研究已不再局限於民主政體間的戰爭機率，有些學者已經開始轉向研究威權政體間的戰爭機率。這樣的研究發展，有利於促進國際政治和比較政府兩個次領域的對話，而本文亦嘗試將威權政體分類相關的比較政治研究，帶入國際政治場域進行分析。2002 年 Mark Peceny、Caroline C. Beer和 Shannon Sanchez-Terry 提出 「獨裁政體和平假說」(dictatorial peace)，主張威權政體間亦存在低武裝衝突機率。而且，如果再將威權政體進一步分類，則僅有單..

When analyzing the relationship between regime type and the possibility of militarized interstate conflict, an interdisciplinary dialogue between the fields of comparative politics and international relations is vitally demanded, especially when stepping into the further area of democratic peace, “dictatorial peace." In 2002, Mark Peceny, Caroline Beer, and Shannon Sanchez-Terry concluded that a lower conflict possibility does exist among non-democratic regimes. Moreover, after classifying non-democracies into three categories, t..