本文主張新古典現實主義不宜再度檢視國內層次的眾多因素與變項，而應從實然的角度來思考國家如何評估威脅、國家如何選擇外交政策的類型。本文說明新古典現實主義並非為解決異例(anomaly)誕生，而是將非體系與理念因素納入體系理論的邏輯之中，也就是將國內層次因素解讀為決策者對壓力的反應類型，亦即決策者會評估並判斷應採取何種類型之外交政策。而根據決策者對國際壓力的知覺(perception)，以及對於國內政治的評估 (calculation)，本文整理出國家具有制衡、..

This article criticizes the inappropriateness of neoclassical realism in evaluating factors and variables at the domestic level. Instead, the manner of which states assess threats and choose types of foreign policy should be based on empirical methods. The authors explain that neoclassical realism is not a result of solving anomaly but that it combines non-structural and ideational factors into the logic of the system theory. Factors at the domestic level are supposed to be systematically categorized and simplified by types o..

被視為冷戰時期中最危險的古巴飛彈危機事件，持續吸引學者的研究興趣長達近半個世紀。特別是Kennedy白宮錄音帶此新證據之解密，對研究者而言呈現出重要的洞見暨困惑。儘管如此，鮮少研究透過外交信息傳遞之面向來探究此一歷史事件。信息傳遞此一針對國際危機解決之途徑認為，當面對國際衝突時，國家會傳達其對手具外交標的之「語言」與 「非語言」信息。就某種意義而論，決策者釋出之每一個信息與反信息，均意謂其自身策略性之意圖與關乎對手信息之反應。本文透過國際情境、菁英決策，以及外交信息傳遞等三個面向，針對古..

The Cuban Missile Crisis, one of the most dangerous events of the Cold War, has continued to attract academic attention for almost half a century, especially with the release of new evidence in the Kennedy tapes that presents researchers with insights as well as puzzles. Nevertheless, few, if any, studies have explored this historic event from a diplomatic signaling perspective. The signaling approach to international crisis resolution posits that in the face of international conflicts, a state disseminates verbal and/or nonverbal signals, ..

本文從批判性地緣政治 ( critical geopolitics ) 的角度，藉由波士尼亞戰爭 ( 1992-1995 年 )此一案例，探討後冷戰時期美國的外交政策。深受國際關係後實證主義 ( post-positivism) 的影響，批判性地緣政治旨在問題化(problematize) 地緣政治的思想，主張地緣政治的基本元素，例如主權、領土、疆界、民族國家等，其意義不是既定的，而是社會實踐的結果。外交政策的功能之一，即是藉由賦予特定「他者」一個地緣政治的意義，建構或合理化國家的政策還..

This paper uses the approach of critical geopolitics to study the US foreign policy in the post-Cold War era, with the Bosnian war (1992-1995) being the empirical case. Influenced by the stream of post-positivism in International Relations (IR), critical geopolitics aims at problematizing traditional geopolitical thinking, holding that the meaning of concepts such as sovereignty, territory, boundary, nation-state, and so on, is not given and fixed, but is a construct of social practices. One function of foreign policy is thus to give an &ld..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..

本文分析美國貿易授權法時期(2002~2007年)FTA的簽訂策略。影響 美國簽訂FTA策略的因素大致可分為外在因素與國內因素兩類。外在因素包括了九一一恐怖攻擊事件、中國崛起、東亞經濟整合、歐盟東擴、WTO 談判受挫、FTA盛行，以及歐盟與中國在拉美的勢力逐漸擴張等因素。國內因素則是由於貿易授權法的通過，國會進一步賦予行政部門對外談判的權力與快速立法程序，使美國從過去強調多邊主義的政策，轉變為多邊主義與雙邊主義並行。美國採取競爭自由化的貿易政策，使用自由貿易..

This article analyzes the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) strategy adopted by the United States during the valid period of the Trade Promotion Authority Act (2002~2007). Because of the external factors, such as 911 terrorist attacks, rise of China, the economic integration of East Asia, EU’s expansion, the frustration of WTO negotiations, the fashion of FTA, the EU and China’s expanding influence toward Latin America, and other domestic factors such as the power of negotiation and the fast track procedure offered by th..