美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上,美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜,混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件,美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述,單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議,以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例,試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例,美國..
How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..
本文探討美國小布希總統任內的文武關係。置重點於文人統制與軍人專業倫理的理念與實踐。內容重點包括:美國文武關係理論,文人主導的戰爭和軍事轉型,文人領導風格,文、武領導者之間的衝突,退役將領對文人領導者的批評,以及文武關係理論的檢視。文、武之間的衝突,主要源自 911 攻擊事件後,美國在阿富汗和伊拉克發動的反恐戰爭過程中,雙方在用兵計畫與實施上的爭執,以及文人國防部長倫斯斐領導風格所導致軍事將領的反彈。這一過程,在美國文武關係演變上所顯示的意涵在於:一、文武關係..
This study discussed the civil-military relations in the United States during George W. Bush’s presidency(2001-2006)and focused on civilian control, notions and fulfillment of military professionalism. The key points included American civil-military relations theories, wars and military transformations led by civilians, civilian leadership styles, conflicts between the civilian and military top rankings, criticisms on civilian leaderships by retired generals, and reviews of civil-military relations theories. Civilian an..
本文探討影響中美在中國沿海進行海域油氣勘探合作的主要變數。尼克森政府時期,中美開始海域油氣勘探上的接觸。改革開放與中美建交後,中國擴大與美國在海域油氣勘探上的合作。不過,中國和周邊國家存在領土與邊界爭議。北京威脅使用武力,對美國政府與石油公司產生影響。《聯合國海洋法公約》是另一個重要變數,特別是在蘇聯瓦解後。2008 年,中美開始進行有關投資保障協定的談判。一般而言,雙邊投資協定要求簽約國對外來投資者提供保護。2012 年,歐巴馬政府完成了美國投資保障協定範..
This article discusses major factors affecting offshore oil and natural gas exploration cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the United States along China’s coast. Contact between the U.S. and China regarding offshore oil and natural gas exploration began in the Nixon Administration. After the reform and opening-up policy and the establishment of Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations, China expanded cooperation with the U.S. in offshore oil and natural gas exploration. However, there are existing territ..
2007-08 年爆發全球金融危機後,美聯準會(Fed)實施三輪的量化寬鬆貨幣(QE)政策以支持金融穩定與刺激經濟成長。Fed 的 QE 政策導致美元貶值,這意味持有過半美國債券作為儲備貨幣之外國官方機構(Foreign Official Institutions, FOIs),其國債部位將產生巨大之資本損失。強調新自由主義世界秩序重要性之國際政治經濟學文獻,在論述金融全球化時指出, Fed 的銀行紓困計畫對其他經濟體形成非意圖性之資本流動的外溢效果。藉由 ..
In the wake of the global financial crisis that struck the world in 2007- 08, the U.S. Federal Reserve(the Fed)has undertaken three rounds of quantitative easing(QE)in an effort to sustain financial stability and stimulate economic growth. However, the Fed’s QE policy inevitably resulted in dollar depreciation, which means a huge capital loss for foreign official institutions ( FOIs ) since FOIs hold more than half of the outstanding stock of U.S. Treasury securities as official reserve holdings. Existing International ..
國家安全戰略中的經濟安全層面關注之面向為掌握經濟資源管道,維持經濟繁榮與永續發展,進而保障經濟體系長期穩定成長與安全運作。韓國自 1990 年代末期啟動 FTA 戰略,作為主要的對外通商核心政策,希望透過積極參與經濟整合,提升國際地位。 本文由韓國構築 FTA 戰略之源起為背景,以韓國政府公報、官員回憶錄、美國國會之公開檔案、智庫之研究報告、國內外學者撰寫之重要期刊論文與專書以及主要媒體報導為參考素材,配合訪談參與韓美 FTA 談判之雙..
National security strategy on the economic level of concern focuses not only on controlling economic resources to maintain prosperity and sustainable development, but also ensures long-term and stable growth and safety operation in an economic system. South Korea has pushed forward the FTA strategy as its core foreign trade policy since the 1990s in order for participating in economic integration and enhancing its international status. This paper sets Korea’s FTA Strategy as the background and uses Korean gov..
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