自我國與美國斷交後，過去40年來，美國政府對臺軍售始終為美國作為兩岸關係第三方影響的重要課題，亦為在兩岸間「衝突預防」的政策工具。美國對於臺灣的安全承諾，長期擺盪在安全利益與民主聲譽之間，亦根源於行政部門和國會之間的立場分野。有別於過去的分析途徑，本文從外交政策分析(FPA)的理論視角切入，以總統決策機制為分析單元，討論美國總統在對臺軍售決策機制中究竟扮演的關鍵角色，以總統任期、領導人安全觀及府會結構三項解釋變數，檢視歷屆美國總統對於公布軍售和..

Since the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S arms sales to Taiwan have been a critical issue affecting the Cross-Strait relations for the past 40 years. In order to preserve stability in the Taiwan Strait, maintaining sufficient self-defense capability for Taiwan has been the major goal of the United States. However, the U.S security commitment to Taiwan has long been fluctuating between security interests and democratic reputation. It also depends on the stance of the executive bran..

傳統的研究智慧中，總統制和兩黨制的配套被認為是一個民主國家較容易運作的組合。主要的理由是兩黨制較不可能出現意識形態的極化，以及因為兩個政黨需要贏得中間位置的選票，其可以促成政黨之間較溫和及向心的競爭，因而有助於總統制的運作。然而，近年來，一些兩黨總統制國家發生嚴重的憲政危機，甚至促成民主衰退。為何這些兩黨總統制國家會走上民主衰退的道路，是本文所要探索的研究問題。首先，本文透過對於拉丁美洲兩黨總統制國家的個案分析發現，憲政結構的因素如總統和國會的權力抗衡會影響..

Past research argues that presidentialism and two-party systems are workable combinations that can facilitate democratic stability. The causal mechanisms are that ideological polarization is less possible to appear in a two-party system, that two parties needing to win votes from the center encourages moderation, and that the absence of the extremist parties and the centripetal nature of party competition favor democratic stability. However, in recent years, some presidential countries with a two-party system in Latin America..

1970 年代研究三角關係的專家塔圖(Michel Tatu)指出，美、中、蘇 「三者之一欲激起另兩方同謀之必然方式，為展現過度侵略性」。本文以塔圖之分析，探討 1979 年以來美臺軍事、政治與經貿關係之演變。由過去美、中、臺三角關係之互動，可以看出以下的特性:(1)中國對臺有過度侵略性的舉止，如 1996 年臺海危機，美國主動強化美臺軍事關係，增加美臺合作的空間;(2)在中國壓力下，國際組織有過度的舉止，如 2007 年聯合國秘書長潘基文謬誤解讀臺灣地位，..

Michel Tatu, an expert on US-China-USSR relations, observed in 1970 that “the surest way for any of the three to provoke the other two into collusion is to display undue aggressiveness.” This study analyses US- Taiwan relations in light of Tatu’s assumption. The interactions of US- Taiwan-China relations since 1979 are marked by the following features: (1)When China acts with undue aggressiveness against Taiwan – as for example in the 1996 missile crisis which prompted the US to dispatch two aircraft c..

在美國歷史上所簽訂的 14 項 FTA 中，NAFTA 與 CAFTA-DR 最能展現總統與國會在 FTA 政策制訂上所扮演角色與影響決策的程度，故本文以此兩項 FTA 作為研究美國 FTA 決策主體的案例。研究發現，在對外政策的決策主體的三種不同的模式:總統主導模式、國會主導模式與互動模式中，總統模式最能解釋美國 FTA 政策。總統具有龐大的國內外行政資源與政黨力量，可以干預國會的決策並改變個別議員的投票傾向，在不影響 FTA 基本內涵與目的下促使國會通過..

Among all 14 FTA’s signed by the U.S. in history, NAFTA and CAFTA-DR - selected by this paper as cases to identify the entity that owns the power of dominating the U.S. FTA policy - most represent the dynamics and impacts of President and Congress on the FTA policy formation. The research shows that among the three models of decision-making entities of foreign policy - President, Congress, and Interaction, the President model best explains the decision-making of FTA policies. President controls enormous external and int..