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當前美國與拉美激進左派國家關係與前景:2008年美、玻、委外交衝突事件個案研究
Current Relations between the United States and the Latin American Radical Leftist Governments and Their Prospects: A Case Study of the Diplomatic Confrontation between the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela in 2008
柯玉枝(Yu-Chih Ko)
48卷4期(2009/12/01)

2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..

前蘇聯地區內部改革與對外政策偏好關係:以烏克蘭、白俄羅斯與摩爾多瓦為例
The Correlation between Internal Reform and External Policy in the Post-Communist Region: Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine
楊三億(San-Yi Yang)
48卷3期(2009/09/01)

當歐洲聯盟完成 2004 年和 2007 年東擴以後,烏克蘭、白俄羅斯與摩爾多瓦三國成為歐盟與俄羅斯權力競爭的緩衝地帶,此三國外交政策偏好與未來可能走向對歐洲地區未來整合具重要意義。從對外政策制訂過程來看,一國外交政策選擇除受外部環境影響外,內部改革因素不容忽視,尤其歐盟於後冷戰時期推動之擴張政策對周邊國家產生極為深遠之影響。基於此,本文將採取社會穩定、民主化與經濟依賴三要素做為分析架構,以社會穩定與否、民主化程度高低、對外經濟依賴程度三變項理解此三國外交政..

Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine occupy the focal point of political development in the European continent after the end of Cold War when European Union completed its eastern enlargement. The author argues that social stability, democratization and economic dependency are three major factors influencing Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s foreign policy choices. First, the more stable social order within the country, the likelier government may foster a more unified foreign policy. Second, the more democratic political process..

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