2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決定。本文發現促成美、玻、委三方 在 2008 年採取克制態度處理衝突事件的主要因素是,衝突事件當時的不一致訊息及複雜的情勢所致,因為在無法判定風險與代價高低時,決策者通常避免過早做出決定以減少錯誤,因而延後對外使用武力及衝突爆發的時間。
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ intentions, and image of hostility are employed in examining why the three countries involved decided to back down from the confrontation. The author finds that the main reasons for this were inconsistent information and the complexity of the situation. In a situation in which it is impossible to calculate risks and costs, policymakers often postpone making decisions in order to minimize mistakes, thus deferring the use of military force and the outbreak of conflicts.
雖然中國政府重申不會在國際壓力下改革人民幣匯率,但其終究在 2005 年 7 月 21 日改革人民幣匯率體制與水平,本文透過貨幣權力關係理論的途徑探討為什麼中國會改變人民幣匯率政策。本文論證了美國是國際貨幣權力關係中的強國,在貨幣權力理論中延遲的權力與轉移的權力上,確認了美國的貨幣權力高於中國,讓美國得以在此一國際貨幣權力關係中向中國施壓,使得中國在人民幣匯率政策上無法說不,而必須改變人民幣實施多年的固定匯率體制。但由於中國並非美國傳統上的盟邦且在軍事、安全..
Although the Chinese government has reiterated that the reform of Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate would not be influenced by international political pressure, it adjusted the exchange rate regime and level on July 21, 2005. The main purpose of the paper is trying to analyze why the Chinese government changed the exchange rate policy through international monetary power theory. The paper proved that the U.S. is a stronger power than China in the dimension of international liquidity, owned reserves, borrowing capacity, degree of ope..
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