2008 年 9 月,美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下,除了相互驅逐大使,情勢並未惡化,但三方何以採取如此克制的作為,是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念,檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中,三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算,才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..
針對漸行漸遠的兩岸關係,對岸近年推出一系列的惠台、交流政策,試圖強化兩岸民間互動,促進雙方和平統一。此類政策核心環節之一是兩岸的青年交流,自 2004 年以降,邀訪活動即不斷擴大規模,參與頗為熱絡,但此類政策能否發揮部分人士憂慮的政治影響,目前似未見系統的實證研究。 有鑒於此,作者乃透過深度訪談,搭配以問卷分析,探討此類交流接觸經驗,能否轉變參與者的政治認知及政治認同。根據作者研究發現,參與此類活動後,台灣青年既有的刻板印象,產生相當顯著的變化,但若觸及深層..
To break the stalemate of today’s cross-Strait relations, China has formulated a series of policies recently to promote cross-Strait exchanges and in the end to create pro-unification interests in Taiwan society. One of the key elements of these policies is hosting student teams from Taiwan for a short visit to China. Since the year 2004, these student teams have attracted thousands of Taiwan college students each year and through these teams, the students had first-hand contacts with the Mainland Chinese society. But t..
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