歐洲歷經兩極體系瓦解與區域整合不斷推進的國際局勢,處在歐洲大陸的眾多國家各自發展出不同的安全策略、採取多種途徑保障本身國家安全,我們認為歐洲國家的安全策略選擇有其路徑可循,本文著重討論此種策略選擇的因素分析。在案例揀選上,本文特別著重歐洲中小型國家安全策略選擇,這主要是因為過去相當長的時間國際關係學多著重於大國安全研究,對中小型國家重視程度仍有待提升,因此本文擬從中小型國家著手,分析這一群國家安全策略選擇。
在安全策略選擇模式建立上,本文認為中小型國家親歐或親俄安全選擇是政策天然選項,這主要是因為權力競逐過程中,中小型國家為能鞏固安全環境而不得不作出的政策調整,不過此種選擇彼此有異同處,本文希望能找出這些中小型國家安全政策選擇關鍵所在,並建立一個中小型國家策略抉擇的模型分析。本文首先區分歐俄權力競逐中間地帶的 16 個國家地緣分布,以此作為親歐親俄政策選擇之地緣政治觀點。其次將從這些不同群組國家的親歐親俄政策路線進行分類,依其加入歐洲各式政經軍組織之國際協定,判斷其親歐與親俄的策略選擇。最後將討論這些中小型國家安全策略選項的要素分析,嘗試釐清這一群組國家選擇的內外因素。
The European continent has been free of great wars since the end of Cold War. This article assesses security studies in international relations by focusing on middle ground states’ strategic choices in relation to great powers. We argue that Small and Medium States(SMSs)widespread in Eastern Europe, Balkan Peninsula and South Caucasus have their strategic calculations in shaping their security choices. The article posits that the decision-making process of SMSs’ security policies rests upon differentiated and cross-pollinated factors. Balancing, bandwagoning, neutrality, accommodation and transformation are features of SMSs’ choices.
The author employs SMSs’ international participation as variables in explaining their security choices and uses a mix of elements of political/economic factors in analyzing those states reacting to neighboring powers. We find that geopolitics and regional integration are crucial in shaping Europe’s security environment, while domestic and responsive factors co-construct SMSs’ policy formation. In conclusion, we seek to understand the implications of our analysis of SMSs’ security choices.
政黨政治向來為研究憲政運作、民主深化的核心議題。過往的研究,多將政黨政治視為影響憲政與民主的自變項,但憲政特性以及民主轉型的過程,也可能系統性的影響政黨體系,對於政黨體系變遷的規模、機率,存在一定的關連性。基於此,本文以政黨體系變遷為依變數,從制度特性以及民主化背景來觀察政黨體系變遷的特性。核心假設有三:首先,就制度特性而言,直選總統的國家,比起議會內閣制的國家,政黨體系變遷的機率較高、規模較大;第二,以選舉時程而言,也是制度面向的因素,在直選總統的國家中,同時選舉或蜜月選舉,因為總統衣..
Party politics is an important issue to explain the constitutional work and consolidation of a democracy, and especially for newly democracies. If the party system would be affected by different types of constitutional systems and historical legacy, the party system should also be changed. We have three hypotheses: first, we suppose those countries with a directly elected president will have a higher probability for party system change. And the smaller parties are more likely out of parliament. Second, based on the coattail effect, countrie..
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